Education
January 6, 2021
Bitcoin! There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the recent rise. That said, pay attention at this level. Yesterday (first trading day of the year), BTCUSD completed a 2 day volume reversal. This means that the price rallied on significant volume and declined on significant volume the very next day. BTCUSD price history on TradeStation starts in August 2011 so this ‘study’ is in no means exhaustive. Still, the only other 2 day volume reversal occurred at the June 2019. Price is also at the top of an extremely steep channel so I’m on alert for something else besides parabolic rally.
November 29, 2020
Right on cue. Bitcoin plunged last week before bouncing back. This is the 2nd weekly volume reversal in the last 3 years. The other one was in June 2019. Watch for resistance from daily reversal resistance at 18732
November 24, 2020
There is a massive parallel in the Dow at about 30900 that is worth noting. The line crosses the 2007 and 2018 highs and high from early this year. The line equidistant from the median line (concept symmetry) was support in March. These parallels are based on the line that connects the 1932 and 1982 lows (see monthly chart below).
November 17, 2020
Bitcoin! Heads up because ‘digital gold’ is quickly approaching its all time high of 19666. Just under this level is a parallel that crosses major levels (mostly from 2015 to 2017). BTCUSD is a long term bull but I’m of the mind that we see a strong reaction from the parallel/all time high.
October 28, 2020
Bitcoin made a volume reversal today. The high was right at the top of a channel too. The longer term chart is extremely bullish but price could drop to back to 10,000 or just below and still be bullish on a longer term basis. Near term, the BTCUSD reversal lower doesn’t bode well for ‘risk assets’ in general. No, BTCUSD is not a ‘safe haven’. It’s been moving with everything else all year. The ONLY safe haven in the current environment is the USD (maybe Yen and US treasuries too).
October 6, 2020
I’m leading with Bitcoin today but it could be more or less anything denominated in USD because it’s ALL THE SAME. Obsess over news if you must but there is one real reason for market moves since late March…the USD. USD up and everything else down. USD down and everything else up. The chart below illustrates this fact. Regarding BTCUSD specifically, VWAP from the high was resistance. A break under the trendline would open up VWAP from the low and 2020 VWAP in the mid-8000s. The Elliot pattern suggests that an important low could form in that vicinity because it’s also the area of the former 4th wave low.
April 30, 2020
Bitcoin extended its gains in early Thursday trading, reaching almost 9,500 before retracing sharply. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has benefited from its appeal as a hedge against inflation amid unprecedented stimulus by central banks.