October 28, 2021

Market Update 10/27 – BTCUSD Warning Equities?

BTCUSD is off 13% since the top last week. If price drops under the short term lower channel line near 56830 then weakness will be considered impulsive and ‘waterfall’ weakness would be on the table. Watch for resistance near 61850. The weekly chart is shown below. This looks ‘toppy’ to me. Yes, ‘toppy’ is an official technical term. Former trendline support has provided resistance on the way up, a doji candle formed last week, and the rally failed after taking out the prior high. Seems bearish. Finally, is BTCUSD trying to tell equities something (see 2 charts down)
October 19, 2021

Market Update 10/18 – USDJPY Nears Big Zone

USDJPY has nearly reached the noted zone so pay attention. Aside from channel resistance, the level just above the market is defined by the late 2017 and 2018 highs at 114.55/74. A pullback from the zone would ‘make sense’. If reversal evidence arises, then there may be an opportunity to play the short side although 113.21 is in line for support (see below).
August 3, 2021

Market Update 8/2 – The Economist Cover Strikes Again!

The most recent Economist cover highlights emerging market struggles. Again, check out the post in the link above for an explanation on why magazine covers are useful contrarian covers but the bottom line here is that EM (I’ll dig into EM equities and FX more in the coming days) is ‘sold out’.
July 27, 2021

Market Update 7/26 – EURUSD Ready to Rip?

EURUSD has been churning near lows for weeks, putting in divergence with RSI on both the daily and 4 hour time frames. The break above the line from the 6/25 high warrants a long position. Watch for 1.1780 support. General focus is the center line and 25 line within the channel from the February high near 1.1930 and 1.2070 (also the 61.8% retrace).
June 23, 2021

Market Update 6/22 – BTCUSD Reversal and USD FX Nearing Support

BTCUSD reversed higher today from the year open price of 29007. The reversal was accompanied by high volume (J Spike Volume). This is the second such signal since 2018 (note the December 2018 signal which is circled). Given the reversal from the month open, I’m bullish against today’s low. 42000-44000 is proposed resistance again.
June 15, 2021

Market Update 6/14 – BTCUSD Nearing Resistance

BTCUSD is still playing out in perfect Elliott form as price nears the noted zone of 42000-44000. The rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 42451 and the 38.2% retrace is 43963 (don’t forget about last week’s observation regarding 38.2% retraces in BTCUSD after plunges from record highs). Bottom line, we’re looking for the next high soon.
June 11, 2021

Market Update 6/10 – USDJPY about to Break Down?

109.20 is the breakdown level in USDJPY now but there is a well-defined bearish fork in place and today’s high at 109.80 is at a well-defined horizontal level. As such, I’m bearish against today’s high and looking towards 108.34 initially.
June 10, 2021

Market Update 6/9 – Extreme Complacency

Daily Bollinger Band width for GBPUSD is extremely low. The reading is towards the lower end of its historical range. Readings this low are shown with magenta dots. Although BB width is not a directional indicator, extremely low readings have occurred before sharp declines. This makes sense since extreme complacency (as indicated by narrow Bollinger Bands) occurs at USD lows.
June 4, 2021

Market Update 6/3 – Commodity FX Breakdown

EURUSD has broken down and near term focus is 1.1990 (see highlighted zone). Resistance should be 1.2160. Eventual downside is the lower parallel of the channel that originates at the March 202o low. That line is about 1.1850.