January 26, 2021

Market Update: January 25

daBTCUSD bounced just before 28000 and turned down today at 34888…right at noted VWAP resistance. Resistance registered where it needed to in order to maintain that price has topped and is headed lower. Don’t forget about the 2 bar weekly volume reversal that registered last week.
January 22, 2021

Market Update: January 21

BTCUSD has turned down sharply following last week’s 2 bar weekly volume reversal. If you want to play in this sandbox, then pay attention to 35000 for resistance and 28000 for the next bounce level. The latter level is a spike low and VWAP from the November low. The former level is defined by VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP.
January 19, 2021

Market Update: January 18

BTCUSD made a 2 bar weekly volume reversal last week. TradeStation historical is limited but this is the 2nd 2 bar weekly volume reversal since 2019. The 2019 signal identified an important top. Bitcoin news mentions have also gone parabolic (see below). This isn’t a surprise but it’s comforting to see the data. In other words, the speculative excess isn’t anecdotal.
January 6, 2021

Market Update 1/5/2021 – Bitcoin Warning

Bitcoin! There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the recent rise. That said, pay attention at this level. Yesterday (first trading day of the year), BTCUSD completed a 2 day volume reversal. This means that the price rallied on significant volume and declined on significant volume the very next day. BTCUSD price history on TradeStation starts in August 2011 so this ‘study’ is in no means exhaustive. Still, the only other 2 day volume reversal occurred at the June 2019. Price is also at the top of an extremely steep channel so I’m on alert for something else besides parabolic rally.
November 29, 2020

Scandex Technical Weekly: 11/29/2020

Right on cue. Bitcoin plunged last week before bouncing back. This is the 2nd weekly volume reversal in the last 3 years. The other one was in June 2019. Watch for resistance from daily reversal resistance at 18732
November 24, 2020

Market Update: November 24

There is a massive parallel in the Dow at about 30900 that is worth noting. The line crosses the 2007 and 2018 highs and high from early this year. The line equidistant from the median line (concept symmetry) was support in March. These parallels are based on the line that connects the 1932 and 1982 lows (see monthly chart below).
November 17, 2020

Market Update: November 17

Bitcoin! Heads up because ‘digital gold’ is quickly approaching its all time high of 19666. Just under this level is a parallel that crosses major levels (mostly from 2015 to 2017). BTCUSD is a long term bull but I’m of the mind that we see a strong reaction from the parallel/all time high.
October 28, 2020

Market Update: October 28

Bitcoin made a volume reversal today. The high was right at the top of a channel too. The longer term chart is extremely bullish but price could drop to back to 10,000 or just below and still be bullish on a longer term basis. Near term, the BTCUSD reversal lower doesn’t bode well for ‘risk assets’ in general. No, BTCUSD is not a ‘safe haven’. It’s been moving with everything else all year. The ONLY safe haven in the current environment is the USD (maybe Yen and US treasuries too).
October 6, 2020

Market Update: October 6 – All the same market

I’m leading with Bitcoin today but it could be more or less anything denominated in USD because it’s ALL THE SAME. Obsess over news if you must but there is one real reason for market moves since late March…the USD. USD up and everything else down. USD down and everything else up. The chart below illustrates this fact. Regarding BTCUSD specifically, VWAP from the high was resistance. A break under the trendline would open up VWAP from the low and 2020 VWAP in the mid-8000s. The Elliot pattern suggests that an important low could form in that vicinity because it’s also the area of the former 4th wave low.