AUDUSD has turned up sharply from the line that crosses lows since August 2021. Also, .6828 is the January 2019 low (flash crash low). Price has reached the 20 day average and the line off of the April highs is just above the market. The rally appears in 5 waves too which raises risk of a pullback. Proposed support is the former 4th wave of one less degree at .6950.
BTCUSD reversed off of the VWAP and the median line today! This is huge and sets a line in the sand for BTCUSD and probably crypto and ‘risk’ in general (see the Nasdaq composite and BTCUSD overlay below). IF a screaming rally is going to unfold then it’s from this level. The former low at 32950 is now resistance. Here’s the thing though…IF BTCUSD breaks below today’s low then we’re in crash territory until the lower parallel near 14000.
DIA (Dow ETF) levels are extremely well-defined. A massive top is completed and the biggest level on this chart is 297.50 (or so). A drop to that level would represent a 20% drop from the all-time high. In the grand scheme of things, that’s fairly normal. Possible trading levels before then include 313.50 (VWAP from the March 2020 low) and 332.70 for resistance (former support). The full view of the structure from the 2020 low is shown below.
Violent reversal indeed. I’m of the mind that this rally has legs given the massive 1.0500 figure and extraordinarily bearish sentiment. Upside focus is 1.0840 or so, which is the underside of the trendline from the 2017 low and median line of the bearish fork. Support is 1.0570/90 (see below).
Heightened bond and FX volatility (notably JPY) has spilled over to equities. SPX is pressing yearly lows and there is no sign of a hold at this point. Price action since September is a distorted head and shoulders top with a negative sloping neckline…very bearish. The measured objective from the pattern is 3724. Barring a miraculous save, 3724-3856 looks like the next magnet. Recall that we started sounding the alarm on a top last September when price was pressing into the long term upper channel line (see below).
USDCAD has reached the level noted for resistance. This level is huge. It’s defined by VWAP from the March high, 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, underside of the trendline from the 2021 low, and year open! My ‘guess’ is that price rolls over but I need a response, such as a price and/or volume reversal, in order to short. Stay tuned.
I’m torn on Kiwi given the prospect for a deeper AUDUSD pullback. In any case, continue to be aware of the long term neckline (blue line), which has been resistance and support so far in 2022. The line is about .6890. If we get a decent reaction at that level, then it will be worth taking a shot on the long side with a tight stop.
The triangle scenario described last week is no longer valid in BTCUSD. However, note that price has reached the 200 day average and the upper parallel from the median line of the fork that originates at the April 2021 high is slightly higher…near 49500. Pay close attention to that level for resistance if reached because since the January low registered right at the median line.
Everything since the January low in BTCUSD appears to be a triangle. Triangles typically break in the direction of the prior move…in this case that would be lower. Under Elliott, triangles consist of 5 waves labeled A-B-C-D-E. BTCUSD clearly sports 5 waves since the January low. The implication is that price rolls over soon and eventually breaks beneath the January low.
USDCAD ripped into the upper parallel of the multi month bearish fork today and turned lower. Resistance is also defined by VWAP from the high and the 50 day average. Given the level, I’m looking for USDCAD to trade lower.