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July 27, 2021
EURUSD has been churning near lows for weeks, putting in divergence with RSI on both the daily and 4 hour time frames. The break above the line from the 6/25 high warrants a long position. Watch for 1.1780 support. General focus is the center line and 25 line within the channel from the February high near 1.1930 and 1.2070 (also the 61.8% retrace).
June 23, 2021
BTCUSD reversed higher today from the year open price of 29007. The reversal was accompanied by high volume (J Spike Volume). This is the second such signal since 2018 (note the December 2018 signal which is circled). Given the reversal from the month open, I’m bullish against today’s low. 42000-44000 is proposed resistance again.
June 15, 2021
BTCUSD is still playing out in perfect Elliott form as price nears the noted zone of 42000-44000. The rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 42451 and the 38.2% retrace is 43963 (don’t forget about last week’s observation regarding 38.2% retraces in BTCUSD after plunges from record highs). Bottom line, we’re looking for the next high soon.
June 11, 2021
109.20 is the breakdown level in USDJPY now but there is a well-defined bearish fork in place and today’s high at 109.80 is at a well-defined horizontal level. As such, I’m bearish against today’s high and looking towards 108.34 initially.
June 10, 2021
Daily Bollinger Band width for GBPUSD is extremely low. The reading is towards the lower end of its historical range. Readings this low are shown with magenta dots. Although BB width is not a directional indicator, extremely low readings have occurred before sharp declines. This makes sense since extreme complacency (as indicated by narrow Bollinger Bands) occurs at USD lows.
June 4, 2021
EURUSD has broken down and near term focus is 1.1990 (see highlighted zone). Resistance should be 1.2160. Eventual downside is the lower parallel of the channel that originates at the March 202o low. That line is about 1.1850.
June 3, 2021
BTCUSD may have completed a 4th wave triangle within a 5 wave decline from the April high. The decline channels in perfect Elliott form and proposed wave 4 has traced out a well-defined triangle. If the proposed interpretation is correct, then BTCUSD is lower from the current level (this pattern negates above 40904).
5/19 – BTCUSD tagged the 32000 level (low was 30000) and snapped back but I don’t think this is the low. Notice where the snap back rally stalled…right at the underside of the former channel line (magenta channel). This is the ‘slingshot’ setup that I’m so fond of. If strength resumes then VWAP levels to know for resistance are 44400 (2021 VWAP) and VWAP from the top, which is currently 50000. The ultimate support is 19666, which is the 2017 high and the 25 line of the channel that we’ve been following. Recall that we turned bearish in February at the 75 line because the rally materialized at the 25 line. This is knows as median line symmetry (see daily chart below)!
May 20, 2021
Since the 5/10 high, AUDUSD has dropped in 5 waves, rallied in 3 waves, and dropped in 5 waves at a lesser degree. An Elliott wave textbook! Resistance should be .7760/70 now. Broader downside focus is .7415 (2 legs down from the February high and the September high…see below). 5/18 – AUDUSD tagged .7814 today. Again, this is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/10 and well-defined resistance since early January. This is a great spot for AUDUSD to roll over. .7730 needs to give in order to ‘open the floodgates’. This level is 2021 VWAP, VWAP from the February high, and VWAP from the March low (see futures chart below).
May 19, 2021
AUDJPY is in black and BTCUSD (bitcoin) is in magenta. My six year old son is standing behind me as a I type and just said ‘they look the same’. He’s right! We’ve been waiting for AUDJPY to tag the underside of the trendline from the 2008 low since February (AUDJPY is below). That line is currently about 86.50. I’d love a spike into that level to short but I’m not sure that happens with BTCUSD already breaking down. I’ll wait for 86.50 (or so) unless price breaks under the line that crosses lows since 4/23 (see magenta line on 4 hour chart below)