Market Update 5/18 – Keeping an Eye on Aussie Crosses

AUDJPY (BLACK) AND BTCUSD (MAGENTA) DAILY CLOSES

AUDJPY is in black and BTCUSD (bitcoin) is in magenta.  My six year old son is standing behind me as a I type and just said ‘they look the same’.  He’s right!  We’ve been waiting for AUDJPY to tag the underside of the trendline from the 2008 low since February (AUDJPY is below).  That line is currently about 86.50.  I’d love a spike into that level to short but I’m not sure that happens with BTCUSD already breaking down.  I’ll wait for 86.50 (or so) unless price breaks under the line that crosses lows since 4/23 (see magenta line on 4 hour chart below).

AUDJPY WEEKLY

AUDJPY 4 HOUR

NZDJPY DAILY

Keep an eye on NZDJPY.  The trendline from March 2020 is about 78.30.  A break below that line, which has held numerous times since late March, would warrant a short position.

AUDUSD HOURLY

AUDUSD tagged .7814 today.  Again, this is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/10 and well-defined resistance since early January.  This is a great spot for AUDUSD to roll over.  .7730 needs to give in order to ‘open the floodgates’.  This level is 2021 VWAP, VWAP from the February high, and VWAP from the March low (see futures chart below).

5/13 – AUDUSD downside is also impulsive so respect potential for a corrective bounce before additional weakness.  Ideal resistance is the 61.8% retrace at .7814…which is defended by April resistance.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FUTURES 4 HOUR