Tag: ETH/USD

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 1/18 – USDJPY Lower High?

USDJPY spiked above the noted line off of the September and December lows but closed just under the line. As such, I’m thinking that today’s high is a lower high within a bearish sequence from the 1/4 high. Focus remains on 112.20/50.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 1/12 – HUGE USD Test

Make or break time for USDOLLAR! Price closed right at 8 month channel support. IF price breaks below the channel, then the objective is the channel extension which intersects the March-May line and March high at 11929 in early February.

1/11 – Pay attention to the USD indices over the next few days. The big level for USDOLLAR is about 12115. This is the trendline from the May low and September high. A break below would ‘announce’ that the USD trend is lower.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 1/5 – Cypto Breakdown

ETHUSD has broken the line described yesterday (magenta line). This line is resistance if reached near 3640. Price is testing the 200 day average now (not shown) but the more important level is probably VWAP from the May 2021 high at 3050 (see below). Bigger picture, my view is that price drops to 985 or so in a 4th wave.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 1/4 – Stalking USDJPY

Well, the re-test is out of the question but this USDJPY move could be a false breakout. The chart above shows square root levels. Square the year opening price and add/subtract that number in increments. For USDJPY, the square root of 11510 is 107 so the first square root up is 116.17. The idea is to look for a turn at the first square root level during the first week of the year in a market that is already extended. Several examples are below. An Elliott case is also made for a top as the rally from January 2021 consists of 2 equal legs (log scale). This chart is below. An objective trigger isn’t present yet.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 12/16 – What’s Up with the Nasdaq?

The equity ‘market’ has felt odd recently. A look beneath the surface confirms this suspicion. The 30 day Nasdaq advance-decline line is plotted below the composite index. The AD line closed at -637 today. The magenta dots indicate readings of -600 or lower. Previous readings this occurred at the Dec 2018 low and for several weeks in March-April 2020 (the first reading was 3/18/20). Prior to the last few years, readings this low occurred in October-November 2008 and during the 2000-2001 decline! Those periods are shown in the charts below. So, the A-D line is ‘oversold’ yet the QQQ closed a bit more than 5% off of the all time high today. All of the prior ‘extreme’ AD readings occurred after for more meaningful declines. The only takeaway I have is that if the index continues to decline but the A-D line improves then look out below because the next low won’t be until the next extreme A-D reading.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 12/13 – Watch AUDUSD and NZDUSD Down Here

AUDUSD has pulled back following a slight push above .7170. My view is that the decline is corrective. The 61.8% retrace is in line with the 11/30 low at .7060s. That sticks out to me as the ideal spot for support.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 12/8 – USDOLLAR Channel Break

USDOLLAR broke the channel! The development suggests that the broader trend is lower. If ‘lower is legitimate’ then the underside of former channel support should provide resistance near 12245. We’ll worry about downside levels of interest as the situation evolves.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 12/5 – Crypto Ideas after a Wild Weekend

That 11/10 reversal nailed the high. From high to low, BTCUSD dropped 39%. The low over the weekend was at the center line from the channel that originates at the 2015 low. 53000 has been a key level since September and I’m watching for resistance at that level. With the low at the center line however, watch for support at 45000-46000. An aggressive bearish target on a break of the center line is 23000. The longer term picture is below.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 11/16 – Bearish Crypto?

BTCUSD has followed through on its 11/10 reversal. I love this setup. Price has broken the median line, which is now proposed resistance along with the 11/12 low at 62295. Initial downside focus is channel support (blue line) in the 52000s. A longer term view is below.