November 19, 2021

Market Update – 11/18 – USDTRY (gasp!) Channel

The TRY crisis has led to USDTRY near (or at…I’ll explain) the top of a decade + channel. The channel top when using intraday highs/lows is about 11.61. When using daily closing prices, USDTRY is at the line now. An interesting juncture and one that wouldn’t be surprising as resistance. That’s as bold as I’ll get regarding USDTRY comments right now.
October 27, 2021

Market Update 10/26 – USDCAD 4th Wave into BoC

No change to USDCAD but I’m re-posting the chart because BoC is tomorrow. I continues to favor the scenario in which the bounce from 10/21 is a 4th wave. Ideal resistance is 1.2470/90 (38.2% retrace of well-defined pivot since June).
October 14, 2021

Market Update 10/13 – Bullish Silver

Silver has broken above and established above the 25 line so that line is now proposed support near 22.78. The inverse head and shoulders objective is 24.87, which is also the September high. 23.97 is pullback resistance. From a bigger picture perspective, SLV made a weekly volume reversal at the low 2 weeks ago (see below). Finally, silver has turned up from a 8 month channel and the bottom year+ range and sentiment is downright brutal as evidenced by articles such as EXCLUSIVE Banks prepare to scrap LME gold and silver contracts, sources say
September 28, 2021

Market Update 9/27 – USDJPY into a Key Level

I’m bigger picture bullish USDJPY but this is a good spot for a slight pullback. Price is testing 111.00, which is daily reversal resistance and the March high. This is also the center line from the channel that originates at the April low. Proposed support is 110.40s and then 109.90s. 9/23 – USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate…I’m thinking a 118 handle (see below).
September 10, 2021

Market Update 9/9 – Turkish Lira Setup

USDTRY put in a key reversal from noted resistance. The combination of technical levels and pattern (possible rounding top) makes for an amazing setup. I am bearish against today’s high.
September 9, 2021

Market Update 9/8 – Well-Defined Short Term USD Patterns

ECB is Thursday. I don’t make trading decisions based on my ‘fundamental’ analysis but I do like to know when important news events are going to be released. Not much has changed regarding the near term technical picture for EURUSD. Pay attention to parallels within the near term EURUSD bullish fork. 1.1780s and 1.1870s are proposed support and resistance. I favor shorting strength into the latter level and targeting 1.1750s (61.8% retrace).
August 24, 2021

Market Update 8/23 – Possible Equity Index Top Levels

SPY made a volume reversal last week. The red and blue bars on the chart indicate volume reversals at at least 5 year highs/lows. The signal is rare. Proposed resistance levels for ES and NQ futures (see next 2 charts) are about 4500 and 15460.
August 17, 2021

Market Update 8/16 – Gold and Silver Near Resistance

Gold is nearing the upper end of the cited range for resistance. The level is defined by support/resistance since April and the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart. I’m on reversal watch in gold.
August 12, 2021

Market Update 8/11 – How Big of a USD Pullback?

Right on cue! USDOLLAR reversed lower from parallel resistance (again) today. I’m not sure how important the high is but short term focus is lower for now. The first level to pay attention to will be 11900.
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