News and Analysis

Market Update 8/16 – Gold and Silver Near Resistance

SPOT GOLD 4 HOUR

Gold is nearing the upper end of the cited range for resistance.  The level is defined by support/resistance since April and the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.  I’m on reversal watch in gold.

8/12 – Silver made a new low and gold did not…non-confirmation!  Again, this is based on hourly data (as suspected yesterday).  Bottom line, the non-confirmation warrants a positive short term stance on precious metals.  1765/93 and 24.05 are resistance levels for gold and silver.

SPOT SILVER 4 HOUR

Silver is also fast approaching proposed resistance.  Again, the level in question is about 24.05 and is defined by the line that crosses former lows (red line).

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD has traded into proposed resistance at 1.1800 but near term pattern is unclear.  In fact, another push higher would make the rally from the low in 5 waves and suggest that a more important low is in place.  If price does push slightly higher then watch for resistance near 1.1830.

8/11 – Keep it simple with EURUSD.  Price bounced today from horizontal support.  Former trendline support (red line) is now proposed resistance near 1.1800.  A move into there would align with a USDOLLAR pullback to 11900 or so.  The next downside level of interest for EURUSD is the well-defined 1.1600.

USDCAD 4 HOUR

USDCAD strength has resumed and focus is now on 1.2650/60.  The zone is defined by the April high and 61.8% retrace of the decline from 7/19.  The underside of the former trendline is closer to 1.2700.  Watch for near term support at 1.2530/40.

USDTRY 4 HOUR

USDTRY continues to weaken, in line with the bearish view.  The next bounce will represent a great short opportunity.  That level might be near 8.57, which is a well-defined horizontal level and currently the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.

8/11 – USDTRY has been trading on the underside of the 2021 trendline for the last 4 days.  Today’s action took out the prior 4 days before price closed relatively unchanged.  I’m bearish against today’s high.