SPX printed 4447 after the close. This is a good spot for a bounce, especially given elevated volumes in SPY and QQQ today. The red bars on the charts below indicate when the volume is at least 1.5 x the 20 day average at a 50 day low. The market usually bounces following one of these high volume days, although there are of course exceptions. My ‘favored’ view is that price bounces but that the bounce fails near 4530.
USDJPY broke the line off of the September and December lows. The underside of this line should provide resistance now near 114.70. Initial downside focus is the mentioned 112.20/50 zone.
Not much to write about today but crypto did get slammed. The most interesting short setup is SOLUSD. Again, the massive wedge broke in mid-December. A head and shoulders top may be forming since September as well. 186.30 or so is proposed resistance (see below). Immediate downside focus is the proposed neckline near 155.
AUDUSD has pulled back following a slight push above .7170. My view is that the decline is corrective. The 61.8% retrace is in line with the 11/30 low at .7060s. That sticks out to me as the ideal spot for support.
All eyes should be on the month+ USDOLLAR channel line. As noted last week, a break below would serve as the trigger that the USD has finally turned.
So much for all of that fancy Elliott mumbo jumbo. Remember the ‘5 waves down at multiple degree…blah blah blah’. USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD) ripped to its highest level since September 2020 today. Sometimes various methods work and sometimes they don’t. The methods that I employ haven’t worked well for a few months now. This will change. It always does. Anyway, USDOLLAR is still in the vicinity of longer term resistance. The zone extends to 12181, which is the December 2019 low and parallel resistance.
Silver is bullish. The rally from the low is impulsive. The question is whether or not the correction is complete. Either price pulls back to 21.90-22.10 or price breaks above the 75 line (parallel just above price) and the top side of that line then provides support. A zoomed in version and possible path is below.
Silver has rolled over from just below the cited level. As long as this bearish channel is intact, focus is lower…possibly a lot lower. The lower parallel intersects 2019 resistance at 19.65 towards the end of December.
There is a massive parallel in the Dow at about 30900 that is worth noting. The line crosses the 2007 and 2018 highs and high from early this year. The line equidistant from the median line (concept symmetry) was support in March. These parallels are based on the line that connects the 1932 and 1982 lows (see monthly chart below).
We got the bounce as suspected and Nasdaq futures are approaching proposed resistance near 11415. I’m on alert for a turn lower from that level.