Market Update: December 9

SPOT SILVER 4 HOUR

Silver has rolled over from just below the cited level.  As long as this bearish channel is intact, focus is lower…possibly a lot lower.  The lower parallel intersects 2019 resistance at 19.65 towards the end of December.

12/3 – Silver has been trading within a downward sloping channel since the August high.  The 11/30 low was right at VWAP from the March low (see SLV chart below), so bullish risk is against Monday’s low.  Near term, watch for resistance near 25.07/56.  Eventually, focus will be on identifying a higher low against Monday’s low.

EURUSD 4 HOUR

If a top is in place for EURUSD, then 1.2132 should provide resistance.  This is the week open and a short term slope confluence.  Possible bounce levels are 1.2011 and 1.1965 but remember that a rare daily volume reversal triggered on Friday.  Those charts, from Sunday’s update, are reproduced below.

12/8 – “Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.”  That famous prose from The Night Before Christmas also applies to the FX market.  EURUSD is likely waiting for ECB on Thursday so Wednesday might be another snoozer.  In any case, price is sitting on the center line from the channel off of the November low.  Price has bounced from this line the last two days so a break would indicate a near term behavior change.  If that happens, then initial downside focus is 1.2040 and the lower parallel, which is about 1.1985 on Wednesday.

EURO FUTURES DAILY

EURO FUTURES DAILY

USDNOK DAILY

USDNOK reversed sharply today.  The magenta bars indicate ‘J-Spikes’, which are key reversals with a volatility filter.  Signals over the last year have been useful.  I like that daily RSI did not get oversold on this latest drop following an overbought condition.  That behavior is bullish.  Also, NORW (Norway equity ETF) made a daily volume reversal today (see below).  This is the first signal since January 2018, which also marked an important low in USDNOK.

11/24 – An Elliott case can be made for a strong USDNOK rally to get underway soon.  To review, the decline from the March high was in 5 waves (textbook by the way).  Since the September low, we’ve had a leg up and a leg down…waves A and B of a proposed 3 wave correction.  As such, wave C is due to get underway and end above the September high of 9.6158.  If we some reversal evidence, then I’ll plot an entry.

USDNOK AND NORW DAILY

USDCNH DAILY

USDCNH has made several daily J-Spikes at 2 year lows over the last month.  A cluster of signals occurred at the early 2018 low.  Price is also turning up from an extremely sharp downward sloping trendline and the low is divergent with RSI.  I like USDCNH higher.