Introduction to Forex Carry Trading
Carry trading is a unique forex trading strategy that capitalises on interest rate spreads rather than speculating on exchange rates.
Market Update 5/24 – More USD Trades and Watch Copper
Copper has rebounded after testing a support shelf from last fall. 4.46 or so is well-defined for resistance. The level is defined by the 200 day average, the underside of former trendline support, and the March low.
Market Update 5/23 – Temporary Lows in Place for Indices and USD Trades
As noted, evidence for a low in the S&P is strong. Friday’s low is at the line that crosses the January and February lows and the LONG TERM parallel (see below chart). Also, VWAP from the 2020 low in SPY held last week (see 2 charts down). 4105 is the initial level to pay attention to but 4270s in the index and 426.00s in SPY line up more significant levels…eventually.
Market Update 5/19 – Impulsive Action in Commodity FX
AUDUSD has turned up sharply from the line that crosses lows since August 2021. Also, .6828 is the January 2019 low (flash crash low). Price has reached the 20 day average and the line off of the April highs is just above the market. The rally appears in 5 waves too which raises risk of a pullback. Proposed support is the former 4th wave of one less degree at .6950.
Market Update 5/17 – Levels to Know in DXY and QQQ
DXY topped RIGHT at the parallel that has been highlighted for weeks. Also, the full extension of the channel from the May 2021 low is on the high. The upper parallel (magenta line) from that channel is now proposed support near 101.20/30 over the next week. 103.90-104.20 is proposed support.
Market Update 5/12 – Bitcoin Calling the Shots
BTCUSD reversed off of the VWAP and the median line today! This is huge and sets a line in the sand for BTCUSD and probably crypto and ‘risk’ in general (see the Nasdaq composite and BTCUSD overlay below). IF a screaming rally is going to unfold then it’s from this level. The former low at 32950 is now resistance. Here’s the thing though…IF BTCUSD breaks below today’s low then we’re in crash territory until the lower parallel near 14000.
Market Update 5/11 – Yen Crosses Breaking Down?
USDJPY has broken the trendline from the late March low. I’m bearish. 130.40/50 is now proposed resistance.
Market Update 5/10 – Tracking EUR / Commodity FX Setups
EURAUD sports a 2 month bottoming pattern (similar to the 2 month topping process in AUDJPY). Price is nearing the 3/15 high at 1.5329 which could produce a reaction lower. ‘Ideal’ support for a long entry is 1.4940s, which includes former resistance and the top side of the line off of the 3/15 and 4/25 highs.
Market Update 5/9 – Resistance in Bond Yields?
DIA (Dow ETF) levels are extremely well-defined. A massive top is completed and the biggest level on this chart is 297.50 (or so). A drop to that level would represent a 20% drop from the all-time high. In the grand scheme of things, that’s fairly normal. Possible trading levels before then include 313.50 (VWAP from the March 2020 low) and 332.70 for resistance (former support). The full view of the structure from the 2020 low is shown below.