April 21, 2021

Market Update 4/20 – Risk Reversing

AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.
February 22, 2021

Market Update: February 21

Crude made a weekly key reversal last week at a defined level (underside of the trendline off of the 2016 and 2018 lows). This is also the level that provided resistance in 2015 before the plunge into the early 2016 low. The trend in the inflation trade (basically USD down) is strong but crude could come off from the current level.
February 13, 2021

Market Update 2/11 – Big Levels in Copper and Crude

EURUSD traded up to 1.2149 today so a near term top may be in place. The rally consist of 5 waves so expectations are for a drop and then another leg higher. My ‘guess’ is that a prolonged range is underway from the January high. Markets oscillate between trending and ranging periods and EURUSD has been trending higher since March 2020. A reset of sorts is needed in the form of a range. For now, pay attention to 1.2030/50 for support.
February 4, 2021

Market Update: February 3

CADJPY is trading at the channel resistance that originates at the 2018 high. I’m ‘thinking’ lower from the current level but have no reason to enter yet. As noted in the previous chart, crude oil is nearing a potentially important inflection point. This is in interesting given the relationship with CADJPY (see below).
January 7, 2021

Market Update 1/6 – More Reversal Evidence

50-51 is big for crude. This zone was critical support in 2019. Once the level broke early last year, crude went into a swan dive. As noted 2 days ago, the rally from the April negative print does compose 5 waves. 5 waves up plus a massive market level in the form of former support (turned resistance?) indicates reversal potential.
January 5, 2021

Market Update: 1/4/2021 – The Most Important Update of the Year?

Today’s USDOLLAR low…11635. Price reversed sharply higher after low print. UUP, the USD ETF, made a high volume reversal today. The only other volume reversal on the first day of the year was in 2017, which was a high. This is only the 4th bullish reversal since inception of the ETF. The previous 3 worked. Those charts are below.
November 19, 2020

Market Update: November 19

Assets prices were down in early U.S. trading as the USD rallied but everything reversed course when the magical U.S. session got underway (stocks up, metals up, USD down, etc.). I still like gold lower but a bit more strength may be in order to test resistance near 1876.
November 2, 2020

Market Update: November 2

USDOLLAR traded into the center line of the channel from the September low today and immediately pulled back. Proposed support is 12050 or so. The top of the channel intersects where the rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 12268 on 11/18. The 38.2% retrace of the decline from the March high is just above there at 12283 and the 200 day average is currently 12284 (see below). So, a slight pullback and then higher? It certainly ‘fits’ with general seasonality and election seasonality.
October 27, 2020

Market Update 10/27: U.S. Election Preview

In case you haven’t heard, there are elections (president, congress, senate) in the U.S. next Tuesday, November 3rd. Do markets, notably the U.S. Dollar, tend to trade a certain way before and after U.S. presidential elections? In an attempt to answer this question, I plotted DXY in the 3 months leading up to and one month after every election since 1972 (blue for a Democratic win and Red for a Republican win). Each time series is compared to current DXY (in black). The vertical black line indicates election day. You’ll find these charts at the end of this report.
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