October 28, 2021

Market Update 10/27 – BTCUSD Warning Equities?

BTCUSD is off 13% since the top last week. If price drops under the short term lower channel line near 56830 then weakness will be considered impulsive and ‘waterfall’ weakness would be on the table. Watch for resistance near 61850. The weekly chart is shown below. This looks ‘toppy’ to me. Yes, ‘toppy’ is an official technical term. Former trendline support has provided resistance on the way up, a doji candle formed last week, and the rally failed after taking out the prior high. Seems bearish. Finally, is BTCUSD trying to tell equities something (see 2 charts down)
October 26, 2021

Market Update 10/25 – Gold Breakout

Gold broke above trendline resistance and the 200 day average today. The top side of the trendline (blue) is now proposed support near 1790. Upside focus is the line off of the August 2020 and June high. That’s about 1840.
September 3, 2021

Market Update 9/2 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD into Big Levels

AUDUSD is closing in on the well-defined .7415. Interestingly, this is the September 2020 high. It’s also support from July and resistance from August. I’ll be on the look for a turn down between .7415 and .7050 (short term channel and bigger picture neckline…see below for a zoomed in chart).
August 19, 2021

Market Update 8/18 – A BIG GBPJPY Setup

GBPJPY did indeed roll over from the 50 day average and price is testing the well-defined trendline from the March 2020 low. A massive head and shoulders pattern is evident and the target on a break would be near 140. Watch for resistance near 151.80 (see 4 hour chart below).
July 15, 2021

Market Update 7/14 – Bearish Oil and CAD

Short term waves suggest that crude has put in a lower high. Specifically, a 3 wave rally followed a 5 wave decline from a high. The implication is that another impulsive decline is underway. The March high at 68 is an initial level of interest on the downside. For context, the longer term chart is reproduced below.
July 7, 2021

Market Update 7/6 – Massive Crude Reversal

Crude put in a massive reversal today. I love the ‘top on news (OPEC)’ dynamic, especially from this major price zone. Recall that this is the trendline from 2008 and a well-defined horizontal zone (see weekly chart below). I am bearish crude at this level.
June 29, 2021

Market Update 6/28 – Crude Oil Reaches Major Resistance

Crude has reached the line that extends off of the 2008, 2013, and 2014 highs. HUGE LEVEL! Price reversed sharply lower today (outside bearish day in fact) and I think it’s worth taking a bearish stance against the high.
May 20, 2021

Market Update 5/19 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD about to Break Down?

Since the 5/10 high, AUDUSD has dropped in 5 waves, rallied in 3 waves, and dropped in 5 waves at a lesser degree. An Elliott wave textbook! Resistance should be .7760/70 now. Broader downside focus is .7415 (2 legs down from the February high and the September high…see below). 5/18 – AUDUSD tagged .7814 today. Again, this is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/10 and well-defined resistance since early January. This is a great spot for AUDUSD to roll over. .7730 needs to give in order to ‘open the floodgates’. This level is 2021 VWAP, VWAP from the February high, and VWAP from the March low (see futures chart below).
April 21, 2021

Market Update 4/20 – Risk Reversing

AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.