October 20, 2021
USDCAD DAILY

Market Update 10/19 – USDCAD Bounce Time?

USDCAD has spent 4 days trading around the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the June low. Also, today’s long lower wick and 4 hour volume reversal (see below) suggest that a relief bounce could take hold. With resistance probably not until 1.2490s, I’m willing to trade the long side against today’s low.
October 15, 2021
CADJPY DAILY

Market Update 10/14 – 6 Year High in CADJPY

CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!
October 13, 2021
COPPER FUTURES 4 HOUR

Market Update 10/12 – Watch Copper Here!

Today was important for copper as price reversed lower from well-defined trendline resistance. Simply, if copper is bearish then weakness will accelerate while price remains beneath today’s high. A break above would indicate an important behavior change and suggest that corrective action since May is complete and that another leg up within a longer term bull market is underway.
October 6, 2021
GBPUSD DAILY

Market Update 10/5 – Has the USD Turned?

I continue to lean towards the idea that the next GBPUSD dip is a buying opportunity. Of course, we need the dip! There is a lot in the way for possible resistance up to about 1.3670. The underside of the line off of the July and August lows is now (along with short term VWAP resistance…see 2 charts down), the year open is 1.3655, and the March and April lows are 1.3670. The short term wave count is shown below and 1.3530 remains initial support.
October 5, 2021
XLY WEEKLY

Market Update 10/4 – Bigger Kiwi Setup

XLY is the consumer discretionary ETF. This two largest holdings are AMZN (22.9%) and TSLA (13.5%). In other words, this is an important ETF with some big names. Last week, both a 2 week volume reversal and 1 week volume reversal triggered. The 2 week signals are shown in the chart below. The 1 week signals are shown 2 charts down.
September 22, 2021

Market Update 9/21 – USD Levels into FOMC

In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
September 15, 2021

Market Update 9/14 – Bearish British Pound Setup

Cable put in a BIG reversal today. I’m not sure what’s going on from a pattern perspective but today’s reversal was accompanied by high volume. The chart below shows high volume (1 day) reversals in futures. Those are some good signals! Also, note that 2021 VWAP was resistance (2 charts down). ‘Levels wise’, price might bounce from near 1.3775. Watch for resistance near 1.3445.
September 9, 2021

Market Update 9/8 – Well-Defined Short Term USD Patterns

ECB is Thursday. I don’t make trading decisions based on my ‘fundamental’ analysis but I do like to know when important news events are going to be released. Not much has changed regarding the near term technical picture for EURUSD. Pay attention to parallels within the near term EURUSD bullish fork. 1.1780s and 1.1870s are proposed support and resistance. I favor shorting strength into the latter level and targeting 1.1750s (61.8% retrace).
September 8, 2021

Market Update 9/7 – USD Comeback

USDJPY has been consolidating since late March. This consolidation is taking place following a break above multiyear trendline resistance. The implication is that another leg up will take place. General long term upside focus is the LONG TERM trendline (magenta line) near 117.50. Near term, price is testing short term trendline resistance (see below). A break above would warrant a long position.
OPEN ACCOUNT