February 24, 2021

Market Update 2/23 – Interesting CHFJPY Setup!

NZDUSD has entered a massive zone (.7370-.7550). The bottom of the zone is defined by the November 2011 low and where the rally from the March 2020 low divides into Fibonacci proportion (2nd leg of the rally equals 61.8% of the first leg). The top of the zone is defined by the July 2017 high (also the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2011 high). RBNZ is tonight, which brings forth the potential for volatility and a reversal (or the beginning of a reversal process) from significant price levels.
February 18, 2021

Market Update 2/17 – EURUSD 1.2000 is Big

1.2000ish remains a possible bounce level for EURUSD but I’d keep an eye on 1.2090-1.2100 for resistance now too. The level is defined by VWAPs from the November and February lows. These VWAPs were previously support. Now broken, watch the lines for resistance.
February 8, 2021

Market Update 2/7 – Huge Silver Reserval

DXY tanked on Friday but price continues to trade within the short term bullish fork. Price ended Friday right at the 25 line so an early week bounce is possible. 91.30 is possible resistance now. Ultimately, proposed support is 90.50.
February 5, 2021

Market Update: February 4

EURUSD has reached the 1.1960s, which is marked by the top side of the 2008-2014 line and center line of the channel from the March low. It’s important! I’m ‘thinking’ some consolidation / bounce here before the level gives way. Recall that the rally from March is in 5 waves so a move back to the former 4th wave low at 1.1603 is suggested (as per wave guidelines…see the 4 hour chart below). Proposed resistance is now 1.2000/25. The top of this zone is the center line of the Schiff fork from the high (red line on the hourly chart…2 charts down). That line has been support/resistance for the last week.
January 21, 2021

Market Update: January 20

The short term median line continues to act as resistance and the 25 line continues to act as support in DXY. If price fails to hold here then the 61.8% retrace at 89.87 is possible support. The upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high was resistance last week. A break above would be significant. Until then, the USD bounce is just that…a bounce.
January 15, 2021

Market Update: January 14

NZDUSD has been pressing into the noted center line (red line) from the channel off of the March low the last few days. Ideally, the next lower gets underway immediately. If that happens, then the 25 line is a level of interest near .7115 but the ‘real’ level of interest is the lower parallel near .7000. Another reason to ‘like’ the short side right now is that VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP continue to act as resistance (see below)
January 12, 2021

Market Update: January 11

DXY has reached a possible pausing level. The level in question is defined by the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart and the median line from the structure that originates at the 12/17 low. If price does pull back, then I’ll zoom in to identify possible support. If price zooms through this level then the top side of the median line becomes proposed support.
January 11, 2021

Market Update: January 10

EURUSD is breaking down and focus is on 1.1915 or so. The underside of the just broken trendline near 1.2270 is now proposed resistance. 1.2125 is a possible bounce level.
January 6, 2021

Market Update 1/5/2021 – Bitcoin Warning

Bitcoin! There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the recent rise. That said, pay attention at this level. Yesterday (first trading day of the year), BTCUSD completed a 2 day volume reversal. This means that the price rallied on significant volume and declined on significant volume the very next day. BTCUSD price history on TradeStation starts in August 2011 so this ‘study’ is in no means exhaustive. Still, the only other 2 day volume reversal occurred at the June 2019. Price is also at the top of an extremely steep channel so I’m on alert for something else besides parabolic rally.
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