Copper has rebounded after testing a support shelf from last fall. 4.46 or so is well-defined for resistance. The level is defined by the 200 day average, the underside of former trendline support, and the March low.
AUDUSD has turned up sharply from the line that crosses lows since August 2021. Also, .6828 is the January 2019 low (flash crash low). Price has reached the 20 day average and the line off of the April highs is just above the market. The rally appears in 5 waves too which raises risk of a pullback. Proposed support is the former 4th wave of one less degree at .6950.
BTCUSD reversed off of the VWAP and the median line today! This is huge and sets a line in the sand for BTCUSD and probably crypto and ‘risk’ in general (see the Nasdaq composite and BTCUSD overlay below). IF a screaming rally is going to unfold then it’s from this level. The former low at 32950 is now resistance. Here’s the thing though…IF BTCUSD breaks below today’s low then we’re in crash territory until the lower parallel near 14000.
Violent reversal indeed. I’m of the mind that this rally has legs given the massive 1.0500 figure and extraordinarily bearish sentiment. Upside focus is 1.0840 or so, which is the underside of the trendline from the 2017 low and median line of the bearish fork. Support is 1.0570/90 (see below).
SPX held up after yesterday’s reversal. There are 2 big levels to note for possible resistance…4250 and 4360/90. The latter level seems like a stretch in the near term but FOMC is tomorrow and sentiment is wildly bearish, which provides plenty of fuel for a violent squeeze. Bottom line, I’m thinking higher following yesterday’s reversal, especially after futures held the large volume level during Tuesday’s trade (see below).
GBPUSD tagged the topside of the trendline from the 2015 high. Again, this line crosses 3 yearly highs. Daily RSI is below 19. Prior readings this low over the last 20 years are shown with magenta dots on this chart and the following 2 charts. The combination of the level and the RSI reading have me on reversal watch. Stay tuned.
USDJPY didn’t quite make 130 but notice the channel from the 2021 low. 1/2 and full channel extensions are plotted with the channel. The March high was at the 1/2 channel extension. Today’s high was at the full channel extension. Near term focus is on the 1/2 channel extension near 125.30, which was formerly resistance. Near term, watch for resistance near 128.50 (see below). Finally, a volume reversal (on futures) triggered today. This is only the 3rd such reversal since 2014. Those charts are below.
NQ reversed higher from the proposed support zone today. Sentiment is stretched down here too as evidenced by the AA II bull bear spread (see below). Sentiment is stretched just about everywhere actually…bonds…the USD…and equities. So, perhaps the reversal down here in stocks is joined by a reversal higher in bonds and lower in the USD over the next few days…just a thought. Anyway, I’m looking higher in NQ. It’s possible that everything since 2/24 is a massive base but near term focus is on 2022 VWAP near 14500 for now.
DXY has reached the bottom of the zone cited last week for possible resistance. The line off of the November 2021 and March highs is right up here along with the well-defined horizontal that goes back to 2015. Within the sequence from the January low, wave 5 would equal wave 1 slightly higher at 100.59. Also, DXY is now up 9 days in a row (see below). The last time that happened was at the March 2020 high!
I’m torn on Kiwi given the prospect for a deeper AUDUSD pullback. In any case, continue to be aware of the long term neckline (blue line), which has been resistance and support so far in 2022. The line is about .6890. If we get a decent reaction at that level, then it will be worth taking a shot on the long side with a tight stop.