May 7, 2021

Market Update 5/6 – USDOLLAR NFP Reversal Warning

A print under 11745 in USDOLLAR will complete 3 waves down from the 5/3 high and give way to another leg up…at least that’s what I’m thinking. Reminder, NFP is tomorrow!
May 5, 2021
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES HOURLY

Market Update 5/4 – NZDUSD Tags Key Level

Kiwi has traded in a textbook fashion over the last week or so. Resistance at the channel high…hard break of the center line…center line acting as resistance…and finally the lower channel line holding.
May 4, 2021
DXY HOURLY

Market Update 5/3 – USDJPY Channel Still Nailing Turns

DXY turned sharply higher on Friday but gave back a good portion of those gains today. The rally counts in 5 waves (impulsive) which suggests at least one more leg up while price remains above Friday’s high. 90.79 is proposed support if price slips a bit lower.
May 3, 2021
TLT MONTHLY

Market Update 5/2 – Monthly TLT Buy Signal

TLT completed a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in April. This is the 3rd bullish monthly signal ever. The first 2 (blue bars) nailed lows in August 2003 and July 2007.
April 30, 2021

Market Update 4/29 – EURJPY Top?

EURJPY closed right at 132.00 today. This is HUGE. The level is defined by the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low and the trendline from the 2008 high! If you look at a 4 hour chart, you’ll see a 4 hour reversal candle. This occurred during the active U.S. session so perhaps a top is in place? The big short trigger remains a break of the upward sloping trendline but if price drops in a clear 5 waves from today’s high then I’ll plot an entry. Stay tuned.
April 29, 2021

Market Update 4/28 – Short Term USDJPY Idea

USDJPY did indeed pull back from 109.00. My near term view is that the drop is a 4th wave within a 5 wave rally from the 4/23 low. Ideal is support is 108.52/55. This is the 38.2% retrace of proposed wave 3 and the 4/20 high.
April 23, 2021

Market Update 4/22 – Pause in Precious Metals Rally

SLV has also run into 2021 VWAP. A pullback ‘makes sense’ with support near 23.60. The equivalent level for spot is 25.62. A big reason to hold a constructive longer term view on silver is the fact that VWAP from the March 2020 low has provided support on multiple occasions.
April 21, 2021

Market Update 4/20 – Risk Reversing

AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.
April 14, 2021

Market Update: April 13

NZDUSD failed to turn lower from the line that extends off of the February and 3/18 highs. The structure from the February high is now a Schiff fork. The upper parallel intersects with the well-defined .7100 level and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart. If NZDUSD is lower, then .7100 is the price to short.
OPEN ACCOUNT