BTCUSD may have completed a 4th wave triangle within a 5 wave decline from the April high. The decline channels in perfect Elliott form and proposed wave 4 has traced out a well-defined triangle. If the proposed interpretation is correct, then BTCUSD is lower from the current level (this pattern negates above 40904).
5/19 – BTCUSD tagged the 32000 level (low was 30000) and snapped back but I don’t think this is the low. Notice where the snap back rally stalled…right at the underside of the former channel line (magenta channel). This is the ‘slingshot’ setup that I’m so fond of. If strength resumes then VWAP levels to know for resistance are 44400 (2021 VWAP) and VWAP from the top, which is currently 50000. The ultimate support is 19666, which is the 2017 high and the 25 line of the channel that we’ve been following. Recall that we turned bearish in February at the 75 line because the rally materialized at the 25 line. This is knows as median line symmetry (see daily chart below)!
If I look at Bitcoin as nothing more than a liquid asset and apply a channel to price history then 53k (give or take) is a level to pay attention to. The level is defined by the 75 line of the channel from the January 2015 low. As an aside, the Bitcoin bottom then was 1/15/2014…one day before the SNB let the floor go on EURCHF. I bought BTCUSD that day but then sold in May 2017. Worst exit ever? The fact that I think about that now is instructive from a timing standpoint. Anyway, the 25 line was support (highlighted) from May to October last year. As per median line symmetry, the 75 line is expected resistance…which is 53,000.
Bitcoin has just gone through its third ‘halving’ since it launched 11 years ago. The event takes place roughly every four years to cut the reward given to miners for solving complex mathematical problems using high-powered computers.
Bitcoin extended its gains in early Thursday trading, reaching almost 9,500 before retracing sharply. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has benefited from its appeal as a hedge against inflation amid unprecedented stimulus by central banks.
A surge in Bitcoin on Thursday to over $7,750 marked the latest leg of an uptrend that began in mid-March. Traders viewed Friday’s expiry for CME April Bitcoin futures as the catalyst for Thursday’s thrust higher. The CME Bitcoin futures contract expires every fourth Friday of a given month.