EURAUD sports a 2 month bottoming pattern (similar to the 2 month topping process in AUDJPY). Price is nearing the 3/15 high at 1.5329 which could produce a reaction lower. ‘Ideal’ support for a long entry is 1.4940s, which includes former resistance and the top side of the line off of the 3/15 and 4/25 highs.
The Nasdaq is holding on for dear life. Price continues to trade around the well-defined trendline that crosses highs over the last 8 years (see zoomed out chart below). Bigger picture, one must acknowledge that trend is sideways at best and possibly down with price below the 200 day average and that average shifting from a flat to a negative slope. Near term, today’s reversal sets up for a squeeze higher with resistance in the 14300-14500 range. A relief rally is needed in order to relieve extremely negative sentiment.
USDCNH broke above a year long trendline today and price also completed a 4 month head and shoulders pattern today. Watch the top side of the blue trendline for support near 6.3930. I realize that this goes against the idea of the USD topping. Maybe the USD has more to go that previously thought?
USDCAD has reached the level noted for resistance. This level is huge. It’s defined by VWAP from the March high, 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, underside of the trendline from the 2021 low, and year open! My ‘guess’ is that price rolls over but I need a response, such as a price and/or volume reversal, in order to short. Stay tuned.
This one is throwing me for a loop. USDCNH broke out today. I’ve got USD reversal signals galore and this development suggests the exact opposite…or does it? It’s possible that EURUSD does rally (and USDJPY declines) while ‘risk FX’ suffers. It’s also possible that CNH trades in isolation. Regardless, watch for 6.3830 support. The long term chart with a long term Schiff fork is below.
In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
AUDUSD has traded into the noted neckline and short term channel resistance (not shown) so I’m on the lookout for a pullback. RBA is tonight so be aware of a possible spike to test the line off of the May and June highs near .7480. Proposed supports now are .7380 and .7290.
Today’s move in USDOLLAR proves us correct in the assertion that action since the beginning of the year is a bullish base. The top side of the median line is now support near 11767. A pullback is possible from the center line of the channel from the yearly low. That line is near 11848. Strategically, either wait for a pullback to 11767 or a break above 11848 (median line) and then look to buy a pullback into 11848 (or so).
Copper is at 14+ month trendline support. A break below would indicate a significant behavior change and usher in the largest decline since the rally started in March 2020. The long term picture is below.
5/24 – After trading to an all time high 2 weeks ago, copper put in a weekly reversal candle. Price followed through on the downside last week as well. This raises the specter of a massive failure after the move above the 2011 high. A close up view is below.
The 4th wave idea described yesterday looked promising for a few hours…then EURUSD blasted through 1.1950. Current pattern is unclear from my vantage point but the next upside level of interest looks like 1.2050/75. This is the 25 line of the bearish fork from the January high and the underside of the center line from the channel that originates at the March 2020 low. 1.1950 is now proposed support.