February 18, 2021

Market Update 2/17 – EURUSD 1.2000 is Big

1.2000ish remains a possible bounce level for EURUSD but I’d keep an eye on 1.2090-1.2100 for resistance now too. The level is defined by VWAPs from the November and February lows. These VWAPs were previously support. Now broken, watch the lines for resistance.
February 17, 2021

Market Update 2/16 – U.S. Notes (TLT) Nearing Possible Pivot

TLT has been tanking but is nearing a possible pivot from the center line of the channel from the March high. Daily RSI is 25.5. Magenta dots on the chart below show when RSI has been 25.5 or lower. Also, the 2016 is 143.36. This is an extremely important chart given the ‘inflation trade’ narrative. A bounce in TLT would indicate a pause/pullback in the in the nearly year long ‘inflation trade’.
February 8, 2021

Market Update 2/7 – Huge Silver Reserval

DXY tanked on Friday but price continues to trade within the short term bullish fork. Price ended Friday right at the 25 line so an early week bounce is possible. 91.30 is possible resistance now. Ultimately, proposed support is 90.50.
February 5, 2021

Market Update: February 4

EURUSD has reached the 1.1960s, which is marked by the top side of the 2008-2014 line and center line of the channel from the March low. It’s important! I’m ‘thinking’ some consolidation / bounce here before the level gives way. Recall that the rally from March is in 5 waves so a move back to the former 4th wave low at 1.1603 is suggested (as per wave guidelines…see the 4 hour chart below). Proposed resistance is now 1.2000/25. The top of this zone is the center line of the Schiff fork from the high (red line on the hourly chart…2 charts down). That line has been support/resistance for the last week.
February 1, 2021

Market Update: January 31

Near term AUDUSD focus remans .7550s and the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the March low. This line crosses the September high at .7413 early next week. Risk on shorts is Friday’s high at .7704. Strength above there would face possible resistance from the median line again near .7740.
January 25, 2021

Market Update: January 24

AUDUSD is testing the median line from the Schiff fork that originates at the March low. This is a key spot. A break below would indicate an important behavior change and immediate focus would be the lower parallel of the short term bearish channel at .7642. In the event of a break below, the underside of the median line would become proposed resistance.
January 22, 2021

Market Update: January 21

BTCUSD has turned down sharply following last week’s 2 bar weekly volume reversal. If you want to play in this sandbox, then pay attention to 35000 for resistance and 28000 for the next bounce level. The latter level is a spike low and VWAP from the November low. The former level is defined by VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP.
January 21, 2021

Market Update: January 20

The short term median line continues to act as resistance and the 25 line continues to act as support in DXY. If price fails to hold here then the 61.8% retrace at 89.87 is possible support. The upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high was resistance last week. A break above would be significant. Until then, the USD bounce is just that…a bounce.
January 15, 2021

Market Update: January 14

NZDUSD has been pressing into the noted center line (red line) from the channel off of the March low the last few days. Ideally, the next lower gets underway immediately. If that happens, then the 25 line is a level of interest near .7115 but the ‘real’ level of interest is the lower parallel near .7000. Another reason to ‘like’ the short side right now is that VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP continue to act as resistance (see below)