October 28, 2021
BTCUSD 4 HOUR

Market Update 10/27 – BTCUSD Warning Equities?

BTCUSD is off 13% since the top last week. If price drops under the short term lower channel line near 56830 then weakness will be considered impulsive and ‘waterfall’ weakness would be on the table. Watch for resistance near 61850. The weekly chart is shown below. This looks ‘toppy’ to me. Yes, ‘toppy’ is an official technical term. Former trendline support has provided resistance on the way up, a doji candle formed last week, and the rally failed after taking out the prior high. Seems bearish. Finally, is BTCUSD trying to tell equities something (see 2 charts down)
October 26, 2021
SPOT GOLD DAILY

Market Update 10/25 – Gold Breakout

Gold broke above trendline resistance and the 200 day average today. The top side of the trendline (blue) is now proposed support near 1790. Upside focus is the line off of the August 2020 and June high. That’s about 1840.
October 19, 2021
USDJPY DAILY

Market Update 10/18 – USDJPY Nears Big Zone

USDJPY has nearly reached the noted zone so pay attention. Aside from channel resistance, the level just above the market is defined by the late 2017 and 2018 highs at 114.55/74. A pullback from the zone would ‘make sense’. If reversal evidence arises, then there may be an opportunity to play the short side although 113.21 is in line for support (see below).
October 12, 2021
AUDUSD 4 HOUR

Market Update 10/11 – AUDUSD Trendline Resistance

AUDUSD reversed lower from the noted .7360. I am looking lower as long as price is below today’s high. .7290 is possible support. If price breaks above trendline resistance (red line), then focus would shift to .7617.
October 7, 2021
SPOT SILVER 4 HOUR

Market Update 10/6 – USDNOK Trade Idea

Silver is bullish. The rally from the low is impulsive. The question is whether or not the correction is complete. Either price pulls back to 21.90-22.10 or price breaks above the 75 line (parallel just above price) and the top side of that line then provides support. A zoomed in version and possible path is below.
October 1, 2021
SPOT SILVER DAILY

Market Update 9/30 – Watch USDCHF for Clues

Silver turned up sharply today after dipping below the September 2020 low. Support is reinforced by channel support down here as well. Simply, the combination of well-defined support and extreme pessimism (numerous headlines include ‘plunge’) suggest that it’s time to turn bullish. I’m like the long side now. The first test is about 22.88.
September 29, 2021

Market Update 9/28 – USDCAD and GBPUSD Setups

So much for the pullback. That said, I hate chasing USDJPY up here (despite being a bull)! The 75 line of the channel from the 2020 low is just above the market. This was resistance in March and July and I’m watching for resistance again. If price does start to pull back, then watch for support between 110.45 and 110.80 (see below). Also, there was a 4 hour volume reversal today. The futures chart below show all the reversals with equivalent volume for the last 3 years (remember that these are charts of JPY/USD so the chart is inverted).
September 28, 2021
USDJPY into a Key Level

Market Update 9/27 – USDJPY into a Key Level

I’m bigger picture bullish USDJPY but this is a good spot for a slight pullback. Price is testing 111.00, which is daily reversal resistance and the March high. This is also the center line from the channel that originates at the April low. Proposed support is 110.40s and then 109.90s. 9/23 – USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate…I’m thinking a 118 handle (see below).
September 24, 2021
USDJPY Breakout

Market Update 9/23 – USDJPY Breakout

USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate.
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