Copper has rebounded after testing a support shelf from last fall. 4.46 or so is well-defined for resistance. The level is defined by the 200 day average, the underside of former trendline support, and the March low.
BTCUSD reversed off of the VWAP and the median line today! This is huge and sets a line in the sand for BTCUSD and probably crypto and ‘risk’ in general (see the Nasdaq composite and BTCUSD overlay below). IF a screaming rally is going to unfold then it’s from this level. The former low at 32950 is now resistance. Here’s the thing though…IF BTCUSD breaks below today’s low then we’re in crash territory until the lower parallel near 14000.
USDJPY has broken the trendline from the late March low. I’m bearish. 130.40/50 is now proposed resistance.
DIA (Dow ETF) levels are extremely well-defined. A massive top is completed and the biggest level on this chart is 297.50 (or so). A drop to that level would represent a 20% drop from the all-time high. In the grand scheme of things, that’s fairly normal. Possible trading levels before then include 313.50 (VWAP from the March 2020 low) and 332.70 for resistance (former support). The full view of the structure from the 2020 low is shown below.
SPX took out the 2/24 low (invasion low) before reversing higher to finish with a high volume reversal (see below). The low was right at the median line of the bearish fork too. Sentiment across virtually all major asset classes is insanely extreme (USD, bonds, and equities). The median line tag and reversal from under the February low is a perfect setup for a squeeze higher. If however price breaks below the median line then the market would be in crash territory.
Heightened bond and FX volatility (notably JPY) has spilled over to equities. SPX is pressing yearly lows and there is no sign of a hold at this point. Price action since September is a distorted head and shoulders top with a negative sloping neckline…very bearish. The measured objective from the pattern is 3724. Barring a miraculous save, 3724-3856 looks like the next magnet. Recall that we started sounding the alarm on a top last September when price was pressing into the long term upper channel line (see below).
USDJPY didn’t quite make 130 but notice the channel from the 2021 low. 1/2 and full channel extensions are plotted with the channel. The March high was at the 1/2 channel extension. Today’s high was at the full channel extension. Near term focus is on the 1/2 channel extension near 125.30, which was formerly resistance. Near term, watch for resistance near 128.50 (see below). Finally, a volume reversal (on futures) triggered today. This is only the 3rd such reversal since 2014. Those charts are below.
USDCNH broke above a year long trendline today and price also completed a 4 month head and shoulders pattern today. Watch the top side of the blue trendline for support near 6.3930. I realize that this goes against the idea of the USD topping. Maybe the USD has more to go that previously thought?
EURUSD appears to be completing an A-B-C decline from the 1.1185 high. The decline would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.1017 and the 61.8% retrace of the latest leg up is 1.1038. The lower parallel from the short term bullish fork is in line with these levels. Bottom line, look slightly lower before the next leg up gets underway.
1.1218/30 remains in focus but I’m wondering if EURUSD is trading within a much more bullish structure. Notice how price has been riding the median line of the presented fork the last 2 days. This suggests that the structure is ‘in play’. So, either price pulls back and finds support on a related parallel…probably near 1.1106 or 1.1060 or EURUSD explodes higher now. If the latter happens, then the top side of the center line becomes proposed support.