March 31, 2022

Market Update 3/30 – Interesting EURUSD Structure into Month End

1.1218/30 remains in focus but I’m wondering if EURUSD is trading within a much more bullish structure. Notice how price has been riding the median line of the presented fork the last 2 days. This suggests that the structure is ‘in play’. So, either price pulls back and finds support on a related parallel…probably near 1.1106 or 1.1060 or EURUSD explodes higher now. If the latter happens, then the top side of the center line becomes proposed support.
March 29, 2022

Market Update 3/29 – Yen Volume Reversal Signal

FXY (Japanese Yen ETF) completed a 2 bar volume reversal today. I’ve highlighted all of the bullish reversals since 2016. All but one of the signals nailed the turn. Signals on the other side were reliable as well. Be aware that this chart plots JPYUSD so bullish signals are bearish USDJPY signals. On the spot chart (see below), 123.15/50 should provide resistance if a tradeable high is in place. The top of this zone is VWAP from the high, which has proved useful so far in identifying resistance. The next levels of interest on the downside are 121.40 and 120.40.
March 25, 2022

Market Update 3/24 – A Look at Select Yen Crosses

Yen crosses are going through the roof. On a very long term basis, the evidence suggests that they could go A LOT higher. For example, the weekly chart below highlights the breakout above the trendline that originates at the 1990 high! That’s significant. In the near term however, my ‘guess’ is that a pullback is around the corner. USDJPY is closing in on the noted channel from the 2016 low. That’s about 122.70. Major support is anywhere between 117.00 and 118.60s.
March 24, 2022

Market Update 3/23 – BTCUSD Triangle Since January Low

Everything since the January low in BTCUSD appears to be a triangle. Triangles typically break in the direction of the prior move…in this case that would be lower. Under Elliott, triangles consist of 5 waves labeled A-B-C-D-E. BTCUSD clearly sports 5 waves since the January low. The implication is that price rolls over soon and eventually breaks beneath the January low.
March 9, 2022

Market Update 3/9 – Nasdaq Holds and Crude Oil Reverses

That was a blowoff top in crude oil. Interestingly, resistance came in at the same parallel that nailed the Gulf War high in 1990. I’m not going to get into detail on the near term charts just yet other than noting 97.60s for support and 115.50 for resistance. Also, USO completed a high volume 2 day reversal. This last happened in September 2019 (see below).
March 4, 2022

Market Update 3/3 – Emotional Markets into Long Term Trendlines

Consider today’s update the ‘long term trendline edition’. NFP is tomorrow and I’ve witnessed many turns from stretched markets over the years following an NFP spike. In this instance, that would be a spike towards USD strength (EURUSD weakness). Interestingly, EURUSD is closing in on a 22 year trendline! This is the same trendline that was support for the 2020 low. A close up is below…the trendline is about 1.1000/20. This is also the 78.6% retrace of the rally from the 2020 low.
February 28, 2022

Market Update 2/28 – AUDUSD Threatening Breakout

AUDUSD is pressing against the median line again so a drop into the lower parallel probably will not occur. At this point, I’m on alert for ‘median line acceleration’. Strength above .7314 would complete a double bottom with a .7636 target. Proposed near term support now is .7230. RBA is tonight.
February 18, 2022

Market Update 2/17 – Watch out for 1920 in Gold

If the gold breakout is going to face problems then it probably happens near 1920. This is just above the June high, short term channel resistance, and the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2020 high. It’s also the 2011 high (see below). In the meantime, 1877 and 1854 are proposed supports.
February 15, 2022

Market Update 2/15 – Gold Re-Test and USDJPY Setup

Gold has pulled back to support defined by the center line from the channel that originates at the September low. A dip under today’s low to test 1842 isn’t out of the question. The top side of former trendline resistance needs to hold as support in order to maintain a bullish stance and look towards 1920.
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