September 30, 2021

Market Update 9/29 – Huge Levels in DXY and EURUSD

NQ is nearing the trendline from the November low. This is also the center line of the channel from the September low (the upper parallel was resistance so it would be ‘natural’ for price to react to the center line) and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from the May low (14641.50). Bottom line, this is an important test for NQ and a break below would indicate an important behavior change.
September 3, 2021

Market Update 9/2 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD into Big Levels

AUDUSD is closing in on the well-defined .7415. Interestingly, this is the September 2020 high. It’s also support from July and resistance from August. I’ll be on the look for a turn down between .7415 and .7050 (short term channel and bigger picture neckline…see below for a zoomed in chart).
September 1, 2021

Market Update 8/31 – Pivot Low in the USD?

USDOLLAR spiked lower on the last day of the month but recovered to finish the day virtually unchanged. Price is RIGHT at 11950. In fact, today’s low was one tick above the April high (former resistance is now support) and just above the 50 day average too. My view is that the USD is still in an uptrend. The question is whether or not the dip within the uptrend is complete. Today’s action (long lower wick into a well-defined level) is a good way to make the next pivot low. Also, 4 hour RSI continues to bottom above 30 (see below). Remember, this is characteristic of a ‘bullish RSI profile’.
August 25, 2021

Market Update 8/24 – USDCAD Support?

USDCAD is into former resistance at 1.2590. The line that crosses lows since 7/30 is about 1.2575. If a bounce were to materialize from the current level then the 61.8% retrace of the decline would be 1.2807…the exact same level as the 7/19 high. Bottom line, I’m looking for a bounce now.
July 30, 2021

Market Update 7/29 – GBPUSD Reversal Watch

GBPUSD hasn’t quite reached 1.4000 (high today was 1.3982) but the upper parallel was reached. I am on reversal watch in Cable right now…especially given bearish seasonal tendencies over the next few weeks (see below).
July 29, 2021

Market Update 7/28 – Levels for USD Support

7415 has been discussed in these pages for months. That level is now reinforced by the 20 day average and a short term trendline. Also, the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs at .7427. If a strong downtrend is underway, then .7415/30 (or so) should provide resistance. The chart below shows price with a rolling 20 day midpoint. Notice how the 20 day midpoint acts as support or resistance during strong trends.
July 15, 2021

Market Update 7/14 – Bearish Oil and CAD

Short term waves suggest that crude has put in a lower high. Specifically, a 3 wave rally followed a 5 wave decline from a high. The implication is that another impulsive decline is underway. The March high at 68 is an initial level of interest on the downside. For context, the longer term chart is reproduced below.
July 1, 2021

Market Update 6/30 – Big EURUSD Level at 1.1770

EURUSD is in the exact opposite position as DXY. That is, the line that extends off of the September and March lows intersects the median line from the fork that originates at the January high. That intersection is about 1.1770. A break below there would be extremely bearish. The red parallel (25 line) is now resistance. That line is currently about 1.1950 about 6 pips per day.
June 30, 2021

Market Update 6/29 – Long Term Views

NZDUSD went slightly through the median line (red line) but that line remains proposed resistance near .7020. Downside focus is the long held .6800 level (2 equal legs are at .6795).