Tag: DXY

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 11/22 – The Powell Top?

Is this the ‘Powell top’? XLK (tech ETF) made a daily volume reversal today and Nasdaq futures (see below) topped a few ticks under channel resistance. This channel was resistance for the September top. From a very big picture perspective, I’ll note that the market cap of the 5 largest companies as a percentage of the S&P 500 is extreme (see 2 charts down). The 5 largest companies are all tech companies by the way. In other words, it’s a highly concentrated market. Historically, this is unsustainable.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – 11/18 – USDTRY (gasp!) Channel

The TRY crisis has led to USDTRY near (or at…I’ll explain) the top of a decade + channel. The channel top when using intraday highs/lows is about 11.61. When using daily closing prices, USDTRY is at the line now. An interesting juncture and one that wouldn’t be surprising as resistance. That’s as bold as I’ll get regarding USDTRY comments right now.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 11/15 – AUDJPY Elliott Pattern

DXY DAILY DXY is ticks from the median line of the structure that originates at the January low.  If I were smarter then I would have stayed bullish the buck as long as price stayed within the structure.  Lesson learned!  That said, be aware of 95.70s for possible resistance.  That’s the median line and June 2020 low. […]

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 11/11 – Trade Setup in Gold

The cleanest setup from my vantage point at the moment is in gold. Price has broken out (remember 1834 was possible resistance…it didn’t do anything so it’s support) and 1834 is proposed support. Former resistance is reinforced by the top side of the line off of the 2020 and May highs along with the center line of the short term bullish channel (which was formerly resistance). Upside focus is the May high at 1916.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 9/29 – Huge Levels in DXY and EURUSD

NQ is nearing the trendline from the November low. This is also the center line of the channel from the September low (the upper parallel was resistance so it would be ‘natural’ for price to react to the center line) and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from the May low (14641.50). Bottom line, this is an important test for NQ and a break below would indicate an important behavior change.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 9/2 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD into Big Levels

AUDUSD is closing in on the well-defined .7415. Interestingly, this is the September 2020 high. It’s also support from July and resistance from August. I’ll be on the look for a turn down between .7415 and .7050 (short term channel and bigger picture neckline…see below for a zoomed in chart).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 8/31 – Pivot Low in the USD?

USDOLLAR spiked lower on the last day of the month but recovered to finish the day virtually unchanged. Price is RIGHT at 11950. In fact, today’s low was one tick above the April high (former resistance is now support) and just above the 50 day average too. My view is that the USD is still in an uptrend. The question is whether or not the dip within the uptrend is complete. Today’s action (long lower wick into a well-defined level) is a good way to make the next pivot low. Also, 4 hour RSI continues to bottom above 30 (see below). Remember, this is characteristic of a ‘bullish RSI profile’.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 8/24 – USDCAD Support?

USDCAD is into former resistance at 1.2590. The line that crosses lows since 7/30 is about 1.2575. If a bounce were to materialize from the current level then the 61.8% retrace of the decline would be 1.2807…the exact same level as the 7/19 high. Bottom line, I’m looking for a bounce now.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 7/29 – GBPUSD Reversal Watch

GBPUSD hasn’t quite reached 1.4000 (high today was 1.3982) but the upper parallel was reached. I am on reversal watch in Cable right now…especially given bearish seasonal tendencies over the next few weeks (see below).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 7/28 – Levels for USD Support

7415 has been discussed in these pages for months. That level is now reinforced by the 20 day average and a short term trendline. Also, the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs at .7427. If a strong downtrend is underway, then .7415/30 (or so) should provide resistance. The chart below shows price with a rolling 20 day midpoint. Notice how the 20 day midpoint acts as support or resistance during strong trends.