April 30, 2021

Market Update 4/29 – EURJPY Top?

EURJPY closed right at 132.00 today. This is HUGE. The level is defined by the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low and the trendline from the 2008 high! If you look at a 4 hour chart, you’ll see a 4 hour reversal candle. This occurred during the active U.S. session so perhaps a top is in place? The big short trigger remains a break of the upward sloping trendline but if price drops in a clear 5 waves from today’s high then I’ll plot an entry. Stay tuned.
April 28, 2021

Market Update 4/27 – EURJPY at Important Zone

EURJPY has reached the underside of the line off of the 2012 and 2016 lows. This is also the line that extends off of highs since January 2020. The line off of the 2008 and 2014 highs (magenta line) is just above the market…at about 132.00. 131.89 is also where the rally from the May low would equal 61.8% of the 2016-2018 rally. This is interesting because action since the 2014 high may be a triangle and alternate legs within triangles often relate by 61.8%. Bottom line, now to 132.00 is a zone for a top.
April 22, 2021

Market Update 4/21 – Watch EURJPY Up Here!

I’ve been tracking EURJPY for a top as it approached the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low since February. On Tuesday, price spiked higher and reversed yet just missed the trendline. I ‘want’ to short. A break of the trendline from the November low is needed in order to trigger.
February 18, 2021

Market Update 2/17 – EURUSD 1.2000 is Big

1.2000ish remains a possible bounce level for EURUSD but I’d keep an eye on 1.2090-1.2100 for resistance now too. The level is defined by VWAPs from the November and February lows. These VWAPs were previously support. Now broken, watch the lines for resistance.
February 4, 2021

Market Update: February 3

CADJPY is trading at the channel resistance that originates at the 2018 high. I’m ‘thinking’ lower from the current level but have no reason to enter yet. As noted in the previous chart, crude oil is nearing a potentially important inflection point. This is in interesting given the relationship with CADJPY (see below).
December 23, 2020

Market Update: December 22

NZDJPY filled the previously uncovered close from May 2019 early this Month and is threatening to break down from a 4 week topping pattern now. The 200 week average has been resistance for years and is proving itself again at the current juncture. Near term focus is on former resistance at 72.00 with a much deeper drop (69.00ish) from the current level possible given the specter of 5 waves up from the March low.
October 20, 2020

Market Update: October 20

DXY continues to fail at channel resistance and ABOVE 94 is still needed to signal that trend has shifted from sideways to up. Until/unless that happens, be aware of another test of the long term support line near 92.30 (daily reversal support). 2 equal legs down from the 9/25 high would be 92.18. A longer term chart is shown below in order to remind that important support is under the market.
October 5, 2020

Market Update: October 5

USDOLLAR turned up from the top side of the neckline on Thursday but returned to the neckline today. Failure to turn up now risks a failed breakout, which would be viewed in a bearish light.
September 16, 2020

Market Update – September 16

USDSEK dipped to 8.6844 on on 9/10 before turning up. I’m viewing that low as a ‘higher low’ within the bullish cycle from the 9/1 low. Price closed slightly above channel resistance from the March high today. Strength above 8.8050 would complete a head and shoulders bottom and set an objective at 9.0150.