Yen crosses are going through the roof. On a very long term basis, the evidence suggests that they could go A LOT higher. For example, the weekly chart below highlights the breakout above the trendline that originates at the 1990 high! That’s significant. In the near term however, my ‘guess’ is that a pullback is around the corner. USDJPY is closing in on the noted channel from the 2016 low. That’s about 122.70. Major support is anywhere between 117.00 and 118.60s.
That was a blowoff top in crude oil. Interestingly, resistance came in at the same parallel that nailed the Gulf War high in 1990. I’m not going to get into detail on the near term charts just yet other than noting 97.60s for support and 115.50 for resistance. Also, USO completed a high volume 2 day reversal. This last happened in September 2019 (see below).
Silver broke above its 13 month channel today to join gold. The top side of the channel at 24.87 is now support. The objective is the 2021 high and full channel extension at 30.14. Gold support should be 1922/28 now.
CADJPY is nearing the bottom of the 2022 range. Weakness below the 1/24 low would leave a series of lower highs and lower lows since the January high although 2 legs down from that high is possible support at 89.12. The bigger level is the 161.8% extension, which intersects the lower parallel of the channel from the March 2020 low at 87.55. 90.40/60 is resistance. A zoomed out chart is below.
Gold has broken out and the next level to focus on is 1920. This is near the June high and possible channel resistance from the channel that originates at the September low. It’s also the 2011 high. If price pulls back then support should be 1842/47. The top of this zone is the center line of the noted channel. The bottom of the zone is the top side of former trendline resistance.
EURUSD has broken out and upside focus is squarely on 1.1660s. This is the 200 day average and August low. 1.1355/80s is well-defined for support now. The zone was resistance in December and is also the top side of the former resistance line that was just broken.
DXY DAILY DXY is ticks from the median line of the structure that originates at the January low. If I were smarter then I would have stayed bullish the buck as long as price stayed within the structure. Lesson learned! That said, be aware of 95.70s for possible resistance. That’s the median line and June 2020 low. […]
Action since the October high in EURJPY is probably a 4th wave. As such, expectations are for a 5th wave rally to a new high. A possible target is 134.29, which is the 61.8% retrace of the 2014-2016 decline and where the rally from the May 2020 low would consist of 2 equal legs. Watch for support near 132.00.
EURJPY sports 5 waves down from the 10/20 high so watch for resistance near 132.79 (4th wave high). The 10/20 high is on the upper parallel from the fork that originates at the September low. Eventual proposed support is the lower parallel, which intersects with the September high at 130.75.
I continue to lean towards the idea that the next GBPUSD dip is a buying opportunity. Of course, we need the dip! There is a lot in the way for possible resistance up to about 1.3670. The underside of the line off of the July and August lows is now (along with short term VWAP resistance…see 2 charts down), the year open is 1.3655, and the March and April lows are 1.3670. The short term wave count is shown below and 1.3530 remains initial support.