January produced some monthly reversals of note. SPY made a 1 bar monthly volume reversal. Notice that reversals also occurred in June/July 2007 (high) and October 2002 (low). There were failed signals however in 1997. Obviously, monthly signals may not be all that timely. These are ‘big picture’ observations. It’s important to understand in light of weekly bullish reversals in indices last week! These charts are shown below the monthly charts in this post.
Clarity is lacking ahead of FOMC as it pertains to general USD direction. The ‘break’ lower in the USD last week proved false but one can make the case that action since September high is 5 waves down and 3 waves up. The rally has retraced 61.8% of the decline too so it’s possible that price resumes lower now. Confidence in direction is extremely low right now. Hopefully, this clears up post-FOMC.
USDOLLAR turned up from corrective channel support. Again, my ‘view’ is that the buck has rolled over so I’ll be paying close attention to sentiment in the coming days. For example, strong USD forecasts would suggests that it’s time to short the USD. Price wise, pay attention to 12020s and 12060s for resistance.
USDCAD has spent 4 days trading around the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the June low. Also, today’s long lower wick and 4 hour volume reversal (see below) suggest that a relief bounce could take hold. With resistance probably not until 1.2490s, I’m willing to trade the long side against today’s low.