Education
June 23, 2020
After Friday’s action, the extent of today’s USD drop was a surprise. Additional EURUSD downside is possible though if price reverses right now, which is the 200 hour average, upper parallel of the short term bearish fork, 75 line within the channel from the March low, and VWAP from the June high (see below). Bottom line, the current level is important so let’s see what happens here before determining strategy.
June 22, 2020
ES traded around noted resistance last week before finally turning down on Friday. Focus is towards 2777.25 and 2849. This the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March and 2 equal legs down. Lows from August and October reinforce the levels.
June 19, 2020
***Happy Phi (6/18) Day! Another day of quiet for the most part (GBP was down big) but tomorrow could get interesting intraday due to June expiration.***
June 15, 2020
My view is that the USDOLLAR bounce is counter trend but it should carry higher before rolling over. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork is a candidate for resistance along with the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/18 at 12428. Watch for support from 12304 (more or less now).
June 11, 2020
QQQ is running into lines that extend off of highs over the last 9 years. A close-up view is below. The red line extends off of the December 2014 and March 2018 highs. That line was resistance for the August 2018 and February tops. It was reached today. The line that originates at the February 2011 high is slightly higher…about 251.70 in QQQ.
June 9, 2020
USDJPY plunged today. Price could bounce from the lower parallel of the short term fork near 108.00. Proposed resistance is the year open and center line at 108.75-109.00. Seasonal tendencies have turned down and the rally from the May low is in 3 waves. The implication is that the rally is complete as a correction and that price is headed for a break of the May low of 105.99.
June 2, 2020
GBPUSD has broken out and near term focus is on the median ine near 1.2800 with significant longer term upside potential. Support should now be 1.2420s or so, which is the top side of the line crosses recent highs.
May 29, 2020
Be aware of 3136 in SPX as a possible pivot. The level is defined by the 78.6% retrace of the decline,March high, and the line that crosses highs in 2018 and 2019. This line was support in December. Price has responded to Fibonacci retracements (23.6%, 38.2%, and 61.8%) during the advance which increases confidence that ‘something’ happens at the next Fibonacci retracement.
May 28, 2020
The British Pound weakened against its major rivals on Wednesday amid reports that Brexit talks are stalling and as the specter of a 'no-deal' Brexit reared its head again.