Market Update – June 22

S&P 500 FUTURES (ES) DAILY

ES traded around noted resistance last week before finally turning down on Friday.  Focus is towards 2777.25 and 2849.  This the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March and 2 equal legs down.  Lows from August and October reinforce the levels.

6/15 – I’m thinking that ES carries into 3110/37 before encountering stronger resistance for another leg lower.  The zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace and underside of the line that crosses pivots (high and lows) since 2018 (red line).

GOLD DAILY

Gold has been consolidating in a tight range since the April 14th high.  A close above 1769 would signal a breakout and set an objective at 1920.  Interestingly, the 2011 high is 1923.70.

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD continues to trade lower within the short term bearish fork.  The next low may be in the 1.1060-1.1120 zone.  The bottom of the zone is the lower parallel from the short term bearish fork and currently near the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.  1.1120 is the month open and near the median line of the channel from the March low.

6/16 – EURUSD failed in the cited zone (high was 1.1353) and focus is lower as long as price is below today’s high.  1.1120 is extremely well-defined from a slope perspective.  It’s also the month open!  That’s the short term bearish target and may be where we end up flipping long.  Watch for resistance now at 1.1280/90.

GBPUSD DAILY

The noted 1.2329 remains of interest for support.  I’d widen the zone however for proposed support down to 1.2250.  This is the 25 line of the fork from the September low and was support in April.

6/18 – GBPUSD closed today at 1.2420 (cited support earlier this week) but I’m still thinking more downside.  If price bounces, then pay attention to 1.2460/80 for resistance.  This is the underside of the just broken trendline and center line from a short term bearish channel.  Proposed support is now 1.2329, which is 2 legs down from the high and the month open.  VWAP from the March low (futures) is near there too (see below).  Yes, that level is huge.

NZDUSD DAILY

Focus for NZDUSD support remains slightly lower.  The mentioned .6303 along with the 200 day average at .6320 should be watched for a possible low.  The high volume level at .6418 is now proposed resistance.  Strength above there would begin to suggest that NZDUSD is constructive again.

6/17 – New Zealand GDP is out in a few hours.  Again, if the flat interpretation is correct, then the reaction will be lower.  Downside focus is 2 legs down at .6303 and the 200 period midpoint on the 4 hour chart at .6245.  Interestingly, VWAP from the 5/15 low on futures is .6290 and 2020 VWAP is .6240 (see below).  Trade wise, I like AUDUSD better on the short side following the bearish weekly reversal in AUDNZD 2 weeks ago.

USDCAD DAILY

USDCAD focus remains towards the month open at 1.3775.  Price is trading around the noted 1.3611 in early week trading.  Generally speaking, the 6/17 high at 1.3595 probably needs to hold in order to trade from the long side.

6/17 – Is a flat also complete in USDCAD?  If so, then price is headed towards 1.3775 (month open) while remaining above 1.3505.  There is a high volume level at 1.3611.  I need strength above that level in order to be long.