News and Analysis

Market Update – June 19


***Happy Phi (6/18) Day!  Another day of quiet for the most part (GBP was down big) but tomorrow could get interesting intraday due to June expiration.***

Pay attention to USDSEK over the next few sessions.  Price is nearing the noted 9.50.  The 200 period average on the 4 hour chart is currently 9.5390.  The next USD high could occur with USDSEK into this resistance zone.  However, sentiment needs to change for me to return to a USD bearish stance.  Roach’s article from 6/8 (2 days before the USD low) is still plastered all over the internet.  Simply google ‘US Dollar’ and see for yourself (also posted below).  The USD is not going to ‘crash’ if the most widely read article regarding the USD is about a USD crash.

6/9 – USDSEK broke down and is testing the lower parallel of a steep channel…which is a good spot for a bounce.  Resistance should be the underside of the former support line off of the 2018 low.  This line intersects short term channel resistance late next week near 9.50.  This is an important chart to know for the next USD short entry.



Cam before the storm?  USDJPY did literally nothing today.  Pay attention to the 25 line of the bearish fork and specifically 107.50.  The 25 line was precise resistance on 6/9 and could be again.

6/16 – USDJPY has gone quiet again.  High today was a few ticks under the month open of 107.70 and futures held both VWAP from the May high and VWAP from the June low (see below and remember that Yen support is the same thing as USDJPY resistance).  In other words, perhaps we’ve seen a lower high in USDJPY.  Near term action doesn’t do anything for me though as it pertains to entry so I sit.  If anything, the described VWAP action suggests that Yen crosses are bearish.


GBPUSD closed today at 1.2420 (cited support earlier this week) but I’m still thinking more downside.  If price bounces, then pay attention to 1.2460/80 for resistance.  This is the underside of the just broken trendline and center line from a short term bearish channel.  Proposed support is now 1.2329, which is 2 legs down from the high and the month open.  VWAP from the March low (futures) is near there too (see below).  Yes, that level is huge.

6/14 – GBPUSD is nearing possible support from the line off of the March and May lows near 1.2420.  Also, VWAP from the May low is currently 1.2413 (now shown) and the 50 day average is 1.2417 (not shown).  Bottom line, I’ll be interested in the long side if GBPUSD responds to the 1.2410/20.