News and Analysis

Market Update: June 26

USDOLLAR HOURLY

I’m looking at short term wave counts today in USD indices and the 3 cleanest USD pairs from a short term perspective.  USDOLLAR focus is still on 12418/28.  A flat pattern unfolded from the 6/15 high.  The rally from 6/23 is impulsive so focus is on buying support, probably in the 12289-12304 zone.

6/16 – USDOLLAR focus remains towards 12428.  In fact, 2 equal legs up from the low would be 12418.  The upper parallel of the Schiff fork and short term bullish channel intersect 12418/28 on Thursday/Friday.  The level is also marked by the 4/30 low.

DXY HOURLY

A flat unfolded in DXY from the 6/12 high.  Strength from the 6/23 low is impulsive in DXY as well so expectations are for a corrective decline.  Ideal support is 96.85-97.07 (probably towards the lower end of the zone).  Upside focus is still 98.40/60.

6/24 – DXY turned back up today so respect potential for an attempt (finally) on 98.40/60.  That zone is loaded with technical consideration for resistance; the 200 day average, well-defined horizontals, 2 legs up from the June low, the upper parallel of the Schiff fork from the high, and the center line of the channel from the 2011 low.  Ideally, a rally into that level ‘resets’ sentiment for the next leg lower in the USD.

AUDUSD HOURLY

An extremely quiet day in AUDUSD.  In fact, today’s range was the smallest since 5/25.  The previous smallest range was on 2/25 (what is it with the 25th day of the month?!).  .6915/25 is the proposed resistance zone.  The bottom of the zone is the high volume level from Tuesday’s Asian session (Navarro’s ‘trade deal is done’ talk).

6/24 – AUDUSD traded to .6975 on Tuesday before turning down.  The area just above .7000 has been significant since late 2018. As long as price is below this month’s high, I see no reason not to look towards .6690ish.  This is another clear level and is reinforced by the 200 day average and 2 legs down from the high.  .6900/25 is proposed resistance (see the close up chart below).

NZDUSD HOURLY

The ‘idea’ in NZDUSD remains the same.  Proposed resistance is .6470/82.  This is the high volume level from Tuesday’s Asian session, the 61.8% retrace of the latest swing down, and the underside of the channel center line.

6/24 – The June high in Kiwi is on a 2+ year trendline.  Look towards the lower parallel of the channel from the March low near .6275 as long as that line is intact.  Resistance should be the underside of the center line of that channel near .6560.

USDJPY HOURLY

Best guess in USDJPY now is that a flat is unfolding from the 6/11 low.  The drop from 6/16 to 6/23 was left in 3 waves which is a ‘tell’ that a flat is indeed unfolding.  Support should be 106.60 now.  This is the high volume level from Tuesday, 61.8% retrace, and 6/11 low.  Resistance now is probably 108.50.