Market Update – June 15

USDOLLAR HOURLY

My view is that the USDOLLAR bounce is counter trend but it should carry higher before rolling over.  The upper parallel of the Schiff fork is a candidate for resistance along with the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/18 at 12428.  Watch for support from 12304 (more or less now).

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

GBPUSD is nearing possible support from the line off of the March and May lows near 1.2420.  Also, VWAP from the May low is currently 1.2413 (now shown) and the 50 day average is 1.2417 (not shown).  Bottom line, I’ll be interested in the long side if GBPUSD responds to the 1.2410/20.

6/11 – GBPUSD is into proposed support at 1.2550/80 but respect potential for a deeper setback given the failed break above the April high.  The zone that may be 1.2365-1.2400 or so.  This is a short term trendline, 61.8% of the rally from 5/17, and VWAPS from the March and May lows.  Resistance should be 1.2642/72.

EURUSD HOURLY

EURUSD tagged resistance on Friday and rolled over.  However, price could bounce back to 1.1340 given the specter of a 5 wave decline from the high.  Under this scenario, 1.1340, which is the 4th wave high and 61.8% of the drop, should provide resistance again.  Broader focus does remain lower.

6/11 – EURUSD popped to a new high and reversed.  My view is that a corrective decline is underway.  The median line is possible support along with the late March high at 1.1148.  The high volume level at 1.1344 remains proposed resistance.

USDJPY 4 HOUR

107.77-108.08 is possible USDJPY resistance.  The bottom of the zone is the underside of the line off of May lows and the 38.2% retrace of the decline from 6/5.  The top of the zone is defined by highs in April and May.