Near term AUDUSD focus remans .7550s and the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the March low. This line crosses the September high at .7413 early next week. Risk on shorts is Friday’s high at .7704. Strength above there would face possible resistance from the median line again near .7740.
USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, and AUD) has broken above the trendline that originates at the 11/12 high. The top side of that line is now proposed support near 11684. Upside focus is the 12/21 high at 11837. The level is reinforced by the median line from the fork that originates at the January 2017 high. A longer term chart is shown below for context.
The drop from Friday’s high in EURUSD is a clean 5 waves. The implication is that price declines below 1.2108 while staying below 1.2190. Consider that the noted 5 wave decline occurred after a perfect corrective channel and a turn lower from resistance (see below) and there is good reason to be bearish against 1.2190.
daBTCUSD bounced just before 28000 and turned down today at 34888…right at noted VWAP resistance. Resistance registered where it needed to in order to maintain that price has topped and is headed lower. Don’t forget about the 2 bar weekly volume reversal that registered last week.
AUDUSD is testing the median line from the Schiff fork that originates at the March low. This is a key spot. A break below would indicate an important behavior change and immediate focus would be the lower parallel of the short term bearish channel at .7642. In the event of a break below, the underside of the median line would become proposed resistance.
BTCUSD has turned down sharply following last week’s 2 bar weekly volume reversal. If you want to play in this sandbox, then pay attention to 35000 for resistance and 28000 for the next bounce level. The latter level is a spike low and VWAP from the November low. The former level is defined by VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP.
The short term median line continues to act as resistance and the 25 line continues to act as support in DXY. If price fails to hold here then the 61.8% retrace at 89.87 is possible support. The upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high was resistance last week. A break above would be significant. Until then, the USD bounce is just that…a bounce.
BTCUSD made a 2 bar weekly volume reversal last week. TradeStation historical is limited but this is the 2nd 2 bar weekly volume reversal since 2019. The 2019 signal identified an important top. Bitcoin news mentions have also gone parabolic (see below). This isn’t a surprise but it’s comforting to see the data. In other words, the speculative excess isn’t anecdotal.
NZDUSD has been pressing into the noted center line (red line) from the channel off of the March low the last few days. Ideally, the next lower gets underway immediately. If that happens, then the 25 line is a level of interest near .7115 but the ‘real’ level of interest is the lower parallel near .7000. Another reason to ‘like’ the short side right now is that VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP continue to act as resistance (see below)