Education
December 28, 2020
DXY is trading in a tight holiday range. Strength above the 12/21 high of 91.02 is needed in order to suggest that a low (maybe wave 5 of 5) is in place. A longer term chart is shown below. The recent low is a few ticks above the March 2009 high…good spot for a low. 95.00ish is eventual resistance.
December 23, 2020
NZDJPY filled the previously uncovered close from May 2019 early this Month and is threatening to break down from a 4 week topping pattern now. The 200 week average has been resistance for years and is proving itself again at the current juncture. Near term focus is on former resistance at 72.00 with a much deeper drop (69.00ish) from the current level possible given the specter of 5 waves up from the March low.
December 21, 2020
Copper continues to trade on both sides of the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 2011. I continue to follow near term levels from the channel off of the March low. The center line is about 3.50. That needs to break in order to suggest that copper is lower, probably until the lower parallel.
December 21, 2020
DXY is up sharply in early week trading, raising the specter that wave ‘5 of 5’ is complete at last week’s low. If the rally stretches into 5 waves, then focus will be on buying a small pullback for what likely proves to be a multi-month rally in order to correct the entire decline from the March high. Stay tuned.
December 17, 2020
old pulled back to 1819 before resuming higher. The next level of interest is 1921/30. This is the 2011 high, 2 legs up from the low, and a slope confluence (short term bullish upper parallel and medium term bearish upper parallel).
December 17, 2020
DXY nearly reached 90.02 today. Low was 90.13 and price reversed until FOMC, after which the buck was no longer allowed to rally. I maintain that reversal risk is high from this level (90.02). Note also the blue lines that connect lows since October 2019.
December 15, 2020
As noted yesterday, the GBPUSD drop from 12/4 to 12/11 is in 2 equal waves. The implication is that the drop is corrective, although it could also compose the first leg of a complex correction. In any case, keep an eye on the top side of the just broken channel. That line is about 1.3380. If that holds as support, then I’d consider longs for a potentially massive breakout as a move above 1.3500 would shift focus to the 2007-2014 line near 1.4050
December 15, 2020
Given the tag of a long term Fibonacci level in copper, I’m keeping a close eye on the near term picture. 3.45 is a level to know over the next day. This is the center line of the channel from the March low. A break below would indicate a near term behavior change and shift focus to the lower parallel. That is currently about 3.25. The line increases about .0050 a day.
December 13, 2020
Copper reached the noted 61.8% retrace at 3.6130 on Friday and reversed lower. The level is also reinforced by the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. Let’s see how action develops following Friday’s reversal but this is a great spot for a more important pivot. I’m also wondering if copper is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ regarding other assets (USD, stocks, BTCUSD, etc.).