Tag: Market Update

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 28

Bitcoin made a volume reversal today. The high was right at the top of a channel too. The longer term chart is extremely bullish but price could drop to back to 10,000 or just below and still be bullish on a longer term basis. Near term, the BTCUSD reversal lower doesn’t bode well for ‘risk assets’ in general. No, BTCUSD is not a ‘safe haven’. It’s been moving with everything else all year. The ONLY safe haven in the current environment is the USD (maybe Yen and US treasuries too).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/27: U.S. Election Preview

In case you haven’t heard, there are elections (president, congress, senate) in the U.S. next Tuesday, November 3rd. Do markets, notably the U.S. Dollar, tend to trade a certain way before and after U.S. presidential elections? In an attempt to answer this question, I plotted DXY in the 3 months leading up to and one month after every election since 1972 (blue for a Democratic win and Red for a Republican win). Each time series is compared to current DXY (in black). The vertical black line indicates election day. You’ll find these charts at the end of this report.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 26

I’m treating the area around 11600 as near term bull/bear dividing line for Nasdaq futures. As long as price is below this level, I am looking lower. 10989 is a level to be aware of within the range with broader focus on 10300-10442. This is the 7/24 low and 2 equal legs down from the September high.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Scandex Technical Weekly: 10/23/2020

2011-2014 trendline support in DXY held in September. Focus is higher as long as price is above that level. 96-97 is a general zone to look towards. This zone includes the 200 week average and center line of the channel from the 2011 low.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 22

Bonds have been the big mover leading up to the U.S. election. TLT is under the 200 day average for the first time since December 2018. The next critical level to pay attention to is 153-154. This is the bottom of a short term channel, the June low, and the long term upper parallel from the channel that originates at the 2007 low (magenta line). The upper parallel nailed tops in 2012, 2015, and 2016 and the low in June. A long term chart is below. Expect the level to act as support BUT a break below would indicate a major behavior change in TLT (and bonds generally).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 20

DXY continues to fail at channel resistance and ABOVE 94 is still needed to signal that trend has shifted from sideways to up. Until/unless that happens, be aware of another test of the long term support line near 92.30 (daily reversal support). 2 equal legs down from the 9/25 high would be 92.18. A longer term chart is shown below in order to remind that important support is under the market.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 19

AUDUSD is pressing the center line channel center line again. The risk is for accelerated weakness following a break below the center line. Immediate focus would be the mentioned lower parallel near .6900. A break there opens up the channel extension, which intersects the top side of the trendline from the 2018 high near .6600. Resistance should be .7080s now.

10/15 – AUDUSD broke down and stabilized near the center line as suspected. Proposed resistance now is the 25 line, which has been resistance and support over the last few weeks. That is about .7135. Near term bearish focus is the lower parallel (extended off of the 9/25 low) near .6900.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Scandex Technical Weekly

DX futures made a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in September. This means that August was a high volume up month and at least a 12 month closing high and September was a high volume down month. This is the first bullish signal since December 2010. UUP ( Dollar ETF) also made a monthly volume reversal. Price history begins in 2007 but this is the 4th bullish reversal since then. The prior 3 nailed major turns. The 2 bearish reversals also nailed turns.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 15 – Antipode Breakdowns

Australia’s All Ordinaries Index (local currency terms) is pressing against the underside of former trendline support. In fact, the rally from 2009 is an ending diagonal (wedge in classical charting) in the 5th wave position. Longer term, the entire rally from 1982 counts in 5 waves. The implication is that a long, drawn out corrective process is underway. Bottom line, the index is into well-defined resistance and I’m looking for price to roll over.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 14

The top 3 month EidoSearch is the 3 months leading up to the 1987 crash. This is not a prediction, simply an observation. Getting back to reality, 3428/55 is an important short term zone. The top of this zone is channel support. Weakness below would warrant a bearish position…then see what happens.