Crude has reached the line that extends off of the 2008, 2013, and 2014 highs. HUGE LEVEL! Price reversed sharply lower today (outside bearish day in fact) and I think it’s worth taking a bearish stance against the high.
USDCAD nailed support and reversed higher today. Time to be bullish again! Ironically, less words are required when the market adheres to one’s analytical method. ‘Feel the flow’…it’s working. Upside focus is open for now.
BTCUSD reversed higher today from the year open price of 29007. The reversal was accompanied by high volume (J Spike Volume). This is the second such signal since 2018 (note the December 2018 signal which is circled). Given the reversal from the month open, I’m bullish against today’s low. 42000-44000 is proposed resistance again.
Today’s move in USDOLLAR proves us correct in the assertion that action since the beginning of the year is a bullish base. The top side of the median line is now support near 11767. A pullback is possible from the center line of the channel from the yearly low. That line is near 11848. Strategically, either wait for a pullback to 11767 or a break above 11848 (median line) and then look to buy a pullback into 11848 (or so).
BTCUSD is still playing out in perfect Elliott form as price nears the noted zone of 42000-44000. The rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 42451 and the 38.2% retrace is 43963 (don’t forget about last week’s observation regarding 38.2% retraces in BTCUSD after plunges from record highs). Bottom line, we’re looking for the next high soon.
TLT gapped higher through the median line today. This is typical price behavior around a median line. Focus is higher towards 148.90 (give or take). Remember, higher TLT means lower rates. This can (not always) correlate with risk aversion and lower Yen crosses in FX.
5/25 – After pulling back from the early April high, TLT found support at the 61.8% retrace of the rally. Price is again at the median line from the channel that originates at the March 2020 high. Markets tend to exhibit heightened volatility around median lines. I’m on the lookout for a surge higher. I’ll address implications for FX and equities if we get a strong TLT (bond) move.
USDJPY did indeed pull back from 109.00. My near term view is that the drop is a 4th wave within a 5 wave rally from the 4/23 low. Ideal is support is 108.52/55. This is the 38.2% retrace of proposed wave 3 and the 4/20 high.
AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.
USDCHF is into support and the level is loaded. The 38.2% retrace, 50 day average, March 2020 low, and November high span ..9180-.9210. I’m looking for a turn higher. Also, the decline from the top is impulsive so a corrective rally is expected. The trigger is above .9245