Near term AUDUSD focus remans .7550s and the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the March low. This line crosses the September high at .7413 early next week. Risk on shorts is Friday’s high at .7704. Strength above there would face possible resistance from the median line again near .7740.
AUDUSD is testing the median line from the Schiff fork that originates at the March low. This is a key spot. A break below would indicate an important behavior change and immediate focus would be the lower parallel of the short term bearish channel at .7642. In the event of a break below, the underside of the median line would become proposed resistance.
BTCUSD has turned down sharply following last week’s 2 bar weekly volume reversal. If you want to play in this sandbox, then pay attention to 35000 for resistance and 28000 for the next bounce level. The latter level is a spike low and VWAP from the November low. The former level is defined by VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP.
The short term median line continues to act as resistance and the 25 line continues to act as support in DXY. If price fails to hold here then the 61.8% retrace at 89.87 is possible support. The upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high was resistance last week. A break above would be significant. Until then, the USD bounce is just that…a bounce.
NZDUSD has been pressing into the noted center line (red line) from the channel off of the March low the last few days. Ideally, the next lower gets underway immediately. If that happens, then the 25 line is a level of interest near .7115 but the ‘real’ level of interest is the lower parallel near .7000. Another reason to ‘like’ the short side right now is that VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP continue to act as resistance (see below)
AUDUSD resistance registered at the underside of a short term trendline. The breakdown level is .7640. A drop below would open up the 25 line within the Schiff fork off of the March low. A zoomed out chart is below. Notice how the 25 line was support (in November) and the 75 line was just resistance. The concept of symmetry at work!
EURUSD has indeed bounced from near 1.2125 (low is 1.2132). The 61.8% retrace of the decline is 1.2266, which reinforces 1.2270 or so as resistance. 2021 VWAP is also 1.2266 (see below)! Notice that VWAP was resistance following the NFP spike last Friday. Bottom line, I’m on alert for a lower high near 1.2270.
EURUSD is breaking down and focus is on 1.1915 or so. The underside of the just broken trendline near 1.2270 is now proposed resistance. 1.2125 is a possible bounce level.
USDOLLAR continues to hold the May 2015 low. The level is also defined by a parallel that is equidistant from the parallel that was resistance in September and November (magenta lines) when measured from the median line. This is an example of symmetry that we often see in median line analysis. I am looking towards the median line, about 11840, as long as the low holds. A short term structure is shown below that is in play and worth following. 11650 is possible support.