Education
September 30, 2021
NQ is nearing the trendline from the November low. This is also the center line of the channel from the September low (the upper parallel was resistance so it would be ‘natural’ for price to react to the center line) and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from the May low (14641.50). Bottom line, this is an important test for NQ and a break below would indicate an important behavior change.
September 29, 2021
So much for the pullback. That said, I hate chasing USDJPY up here (despite being a bull)! The 75 line of the channel from the 2020 low is just above the market. This was resistance in March and July and I’m watching for resistance again. If price does start to pull back, then watch for support between 110.45 and 110.80 (see below). Also, there was a 4 hour volume reversal today. The futures chart below show all the reversals with equivalent volume for the last 3 years (remember that these are charts of JPY/USD so the chart is inverted).
September 28, 2021
I’m bigger picture bullish USDJPY but this is a good spot for a slight pullback. Price is testing 111.00, which is daily reversal resistance and the March high. This is also the center line from the channel that originates at the April low. Proposed support is 110.40s and then 109.90s.
9/23 – USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate…I’m thinking a 118 handle (see below).
September 23, 2021
Is USDJPY about to explode higher from a 6 month triangle? Watch for support near 109.37. Within the range, 111.00 is still possible resistance but that’s missing the bigger picture. USDJPY is the most ‘coiled’ since August 2014…right before price went on a 2000 pip run in 4 months. This observation is based on weekly Bollinger Band width (see below). Don’t forget that price is trading above multiyear trendline resistance as well. I’m on breakout alert.
September 22, 2021
In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
September 16, 2021
USDJPY is testing a key spot defined by the line off of the April and August lows and the 8/16 low. Recall the bearish setup in GBPJPY (see yesterday’s post) but I’ll note the possibility of a bounce in USDJPY from the current level given the noted level and 4 hour volume reversal in futures (see below…remember that futures are quoted JPYUSD so the chart is ‘flipped’).
September 15, 2021
Cable put in a BIG reversal today. I’m not sure what’s going on from a pattern perspective but today’s reversal was accompanied by high volume. The chart below shows high volume (1 day) reversals in futures. Those are some good signals! Also, note that 2021 VWAP was resistance (2 charts down). ‘Levels wise’, price might bounce from near 1.3775. Watch for resistance near 1.3445.
September 14, 2021
The EURUSD drop did extend into 5 waves and a corrective bounce is underway towards 1.1850/56 (former 4th wave high and 61.8% retrace). Today’s rally is probably most of wave A. As such, a small pullback (1.1790 support) followed by another leg up should complete the corrective advance and give way to additional weakness.
September 9, 2021
ECB is Thursday. I don’t make trading decisions based on my ‘fundamental’ analysis but I do like to know when important news events are going to be released. Not much has changed regarding the near term technical picture for EURUSD. Pay attention to parallels within the near term EURUSD bullish fork. 1.1780s and 1.1870s are proposed support and resistance. I favor shorting strength into the latter level and targeting 1.1750s (61.8% retrace).