Education
November 5, 2021
I have not been ‘in tune’ with USD moves for the better part of the last month. During periods of uncertainty, I find it helpful to go back to the basics. USDSEK is often a ‘tell’ for general USD trends and pivots. Here are several objective technical observations;
USDSEK is holding the 200 day midpoint (similar to the 200 day average)…this is bullish.
The decline from the 8/20 high is in 2 equal legs…this is characteristics of a corrective decline within a larger advance…bullish
Daily RSI registered ‘overbought’ readings at price highs over the last year and RSI readings at price lows have been above 30…this is also bullish.
In summary, the weight of evidence is USDSEK bullish and therefore generally USD bullish (notably against European FX). At least that’s where my mind is at the moment.
October 27, 2021
No change to USDCAD but I’m re-posting the chart because BoC is tomorrow. I continues to favor the scenario in which the bounce from 10/21 is a 4th wave. Ideal resistance is 1.2470/90 (38.2% retrace of well-defined pivot since June).
October 22, 2021
USDOLLAR turned up from corrective channel support. Again, my ‘view’ is that the buck has rolled over so I’ll be paying close attention to sentiment in the coming days. For example, strong USD forecasts would suggests that it’s time to short the USD. Price wise, pay attention to 12020s and 12060s for resistance.
October 20, 2021
USDCAD has spent 4 days trading around the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the June low. Also, today’s long lower wick and 4 hour volume reversal (see below) suggest that a relief bounce could take hold. With resistance probably not until 1.2490s, I’m willing to trade the long side against today’s low.
October 15, 2021
CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!
October 14, 2021
Silver has broken above and established above the 25 line so that line is now proposed support near 22.78. The inverse head and shoulders objective is 24.87, which is also the September high. 23.97 is pullback resistance. From a bigger picture perspective, SLV made a weekly volume reversal at the low 2 weeks ago (see below). Finally, silver has turned up from a 8 month channel and the bottom year+ range and sentiment is downright brutal as evidenced by articles such as EXCLUSIVE Banks prepare to scrap LME gold and silver contracts, sources say
October 12, 2021
AUDUSD reversed lower from the noted .7360. I am looking lower as long as price is below today’s high. .7290 is possible support. If price breaks above trendline resistance (red line), then focus would shift to .7617.
October 7, 2021
Silver is bullish. The rally from the low is impulsive. The question is whether or not the correction is complete. Either price pulls back to 21.90-22.10 or price breaks above the 75 line (parallel just above price) and the top side of that line then provides support. A zoomed in version and possible path is below.
October 5, 2021
XLY is the consumer discretionary ETF. This two largest holdings are AMZN (22.9%) and TSLA (13.5%). In other words, this is an important ETF with some big names. Last week, both a 2 week volume reversal and 1 week volume reversal triggered. The 2 week signals are shown in the chart below. The 1 week signals are shown 2 charts down.