Education
December 8, 2021
All eyes should be on the month+ USDOLLAR channel line. As noted last week, a break below would serve as the trigger that the USD has finally turned.
December 7, 2021
AUDJPY low on Friday was at the top side of former trendline resistance and the September low. This is a good spot for a bounce (this pertains to ‘risk’ in general). 82.00/30 is well-defined for resistance. Watch for support at 79.40/50.
November 30, 2021
USDJPY reversed sharply last week and high was 115.52! Near term downside focus is 112.20s and 114.50s sticks out as possible resistance. This is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the high along with the 25 line of a short term fork. The 75 line provided support (so far) so resistance at the 25 line would make sense.
November 24, 2021
***This is the last post until next week. The Thanksgiving holiday is coming at the right time for me…I’ve been ‘out of tune’ with markets for the last 2 months and need a breather. Happy Thanksgiving!***
Remember the gold ‘breakout’ above the critical 1834. It was short lived and the yellow metal has been slammed lower the last few days. Focus is squarely on the slope confluence (blue lines) near 1769. That level needs to provide support in order to hold a constructive view.
November 19, 2021
The TRY crisis has led to USDTRY near (or at…I’ll explain) the top of a decade + channel. The channel top when using intraday highs/lows is about 11.61. When using daily closing prices, USDTRY is at the line now. An interesting juncture and one that wouldn’t be surprising as resistance. That’s as bold as I’ll get regarding USDTRY comments right now.
November 18, 2021
EURUSD low today was 1.1263. How about that trendline! I can’t think of a better technical combination, a Fibonacci level and long term well-defined trendline, to mark an important turning point. I am bullish against the low. The first hurdle on the upside is the weekly opening price at 1.1446 followed by former support at 1.1525. Support should be 1.1290-1.1300.
November 12, 2021
The cleanest setup from my vantage point at the moment is in gold. Price has broken out (remember 1834 was possible resistance…it didn’t do anything so it’s support) and 1834 is proposed support. Former resistance is reinforced by the top side of the line off of the 2020 and May highs along with the center line of the short term bullish channel (which was formerly resistance). Upside focus is the May high at 1916.
November 10, 2021
Since USDCAD is USDCAD, it had to test Friday’s high before reversing lower. In any case, there is no change to the view that a 5th wave lower is underway. I don’t have all of the measurements on the chart because I like to keep it clean but realize that wave 3 is exactly 161.8% of wave 1. If today was the 4th wave high, then wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.2184. This is in line with the 5/13 high at 1.2203. Bottom line, I’m looking towards 1.2200ish. There is a high volume level at 1.2459 that is proposed resistance now. Finally, an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see futures chart below, which extends back one year).
November 9, 2021
Gold is closing in on the noted level from the line that extends off of the 2020 and May highs and resistance since July near 1834. I’m ‘thinking’ pullback initially from the well-defined level but will be tracking for support beginning near 1800 since I’m of the mind that the broader trend is higher.