SPY made a volume reversal last week. The red and blue bars on the chart indicate volume reversals at at least 5 year highs/lows. The signal is rare. Proposed resistance levels for ES and NQ futures (see next 2 charts) are about 4500 and 15460.
We got the leg up in USDOLLAR and price has entered the a possible resistance zone. My ‘base case’ is that price does pull back before resuming higher. Keep it general for now regarding USDOLLAR.
DXY and USDOLLAR remain in flux (one more push higher as per the 4th wave interpretation?…see yesterday’s post) but EURUSD action from the low is constructive. Price rallied in 5 waves and declined in 3 waves therefore I lean towards the long side against 1.1772. Also, don’t forget that Euro futures are holding VWAP from the March low (see below).
Kiwi continues to play out beautifully. .7000 has provided resistance the last 3 days and focus remains on .6750-.6800. RBNZ is tonight (Wednesday in New Zealand) so it’s possible that we get a flush into .6800 or so before a rebound. For us, this sets up a possible opportunity to flip from short to long.
EURUSD held VWAP from the 2020 low (again) so near term focus is higher towards the center line of the channel from the January high, which is about 1.1935. Importantly, notice that the 75 line provided support therefore the 25 line is proposed resistance if reached (as per median line symmetry). The 25 line intersects the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the May high at 1.2081. Watch for support near 1.1825.
Pound futures made a daily volume reversal today. The signals shown are at least one year high/lows with at least 1.5 x the 20 day average volume. Those are some timely signals. Price is testing the center line of the channel from the April low (see spot chart below). In the event of a bounce, resistance is 1.4210. Near term downside focus is the lower parallel, currently near 1.4005.
EURJPY action since the October low has taken the form of a wedge. The rally stalled this week after taking out the September 2018 high but I’m wondering if we get a final spike into 134.30, which is both the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2014 high and 2 equal legs up from the 2020 low. A close-up view is below.
USDJPY nailed resistance and reversed (high today was 109.23). Simply, I am looking lower until roughly 107.00 (the next decision point?). Proposed resistance is now 108.80ish.
EURUSD has reached 1.1845 (2 legs down). The 200 day average is about 1.1815. A bounce from either one of these levels wouldn’t be a surprise so watch for resistance now near 1.1950 (median line of short term bearish fork and February low). Another downside level to be aware of is VWAP from the March 2020 low at 1.1742. This is in line with the 11/11 low and lower parallel of the bearish fork. Bottom line, 1.1740s is the next most important downside level and 1.1950 is proposed resistance.