GBP/USD Archives Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: November 2

ByJamie Saettele November 2, 2020

USDOLLAR traded into the center line of the channel from the September low today and immediately pulled back. Proposed support is 12050 or so. The top of the channel intersects where the rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 12268 on 11/18. The 38.2% retrace of the decline from the March high is just above there at 12283 and the 200 day average is currently 12284 (see below). So, a slight pullback and then higher? It certainly ‘fits’ with general seasonality and election seasonality.

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Scandex Technical Weekly: 10/23/2020

ByJamie Saettele October 23, 2020

2011-2014 trendline support in DXY held in September. Focus is higher as long as price is above that level. 96-97 is a general zone to look towards. This zone includes the 200 week average and center line of the channel from the 2011 low.

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Market Update: October 21

ByJamie Saettele October 21, 2020

There is no change to DXY comments/opinion but I wanted to reproduce this chart because the index is nearing critical support at 92.17/30. The level is defined by long term trendline support (see longer term chart below), daily reversal support, and 2 legs down from the 9/25 high. This needs to hold if the range from late July is going to resolve to the upside.

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Market Update: October 13

ByJamie Saettele October 13, 2020

Gold has turned down from the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, short term trendline, and 2011 high. Notice the action around the 2011 high over the last few months…gold remembers! Focus remains lower. 1760 appears critical for longer term support. This is the May high, near the 200 day average, and is a parallel that crosses highs and lows since August 2019.

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Market Update: October 12

ByJamie Saettele October 13, 2020

USDCNH has held a massive level defined by resistance in October 2017 and support from February-April 2019. Price has also turned up from the bottom of a steep bearish channel. The top of the channel is about 6.81. Strength above would be viewed as constructive. Also, the chart below shows USDCNH (in red) and DXY (in black) over the last 3 years. Every important turn was marked by non-confirmation between USDCNH and DXY. A bullish non-confirmation is in place as long as DXY is above its September low. Finally, DXY seasonal tendencies turn up now (5 year look back) and after this week (10, 20, and 30 year look backs).

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Market Update: October 5

ByJamie Saettele October 5, 2020

USDOLLAR turned up from the top side of the neckline on Thursday but returned to the neckline today. Failure to turn up now risks a failed breakout, which would be viewed in a bearish light.

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Market Update: September 28

ByJamie Saettele September 28, 2020

Silver broke the trendline from the March low last week and is bouncing from short term oversold conditions. It would be quite a bounce but the underside of the noted trendline intersects the well-defined 26.10/28 zone late this week.

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Market Update – September 18

ByJamie Saettele September 18, 2020

USDOLLAR failed yet again at the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. Pay attention to 11940, which is 2 legs down from the 9/10 high and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the 9/1 low, for support. This is also near the 8/19 low and top side of the line that crosses highs in August (magenta line).

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Market Update – September 14

ByJamie Saettele September 14, 2020

The most bearish time of the year for equities is now through October 9th. 9/10 – QQQ pushed slightly above the noted 279 before turning down. The next level of interest is the long term parallel (magenta line) near 257. The chart with volume studies below highlights some important observations. First, VWAP from the high was resistance today. Second, the importance of 237.50 (February high) is magnified by VWAP from the March low.