EUR/USD Archives Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: February 4

ByScandinavian Capital Markets February 5, 2021

EURUSD has reached the 1.1960s, which is marked by the top side of the 2008-2014 line and center line of the channel from the March low. It’s important! I’m ‘thinking’ some consolidation / bounce here before the level gives way. Recall that the rally from March is in 5 waves so a move back to the former 4th wave low at 1.1603 is suggested (as per wave guidelines…see the 4 hour chart below). Proposed resistance is now 1.2000/25. The top of this zone is the center line of the Schiff fork from the high (red line on the hourly chart…2 charts down). That line has been support/resistance for the last week.

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Market Update 2/1 – Bullish USD Head and Shoulders Patterns

ByScandinavian Capital Markets February 2, 2021

DXY is trading right at the neckline from a head and shoulders bottom pattern. The objective from the pattern is 92.80 (magenta line) but the former low at 91.75 is a possible pausing level. Ultimately, I’m looking towards the underside of former channel support. This is near 95 and in line with the March low, former 4th wave high, and 38.2% retrace of the decline from the March high (see weekly chart below).

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Market Update: January 26

ByScandinavian Capital Markets January 27, 2021

The drop from Friday’s high in EURUSD is a clean 5 waves. The implication is that price declines below 1.2108 while staying below 1.2190. Consider that the noted 5 wave decline occurred after a perfect corrective channel and a turn lower from resistance (see below) and there is good reason to be bearish against 1.2190.

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Market Update: January 21

ByScandinavian Capital Markets January 22, 2021

BTCUSD has turned down sharply following last week’s 2 bar weekly volume reversal. If you want to play in this sandbox, then pay attention to 35000 for resistance and 28000 for the next bounce level. The latter level is a spike low and VWAP from the November low. The former level is defined by VWAP from the high and 2021 VWAP.

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Market Update: January 18

ByScandinavian Capital Markets January 19, 2021

BTCUSD made a 2 bar weekly volume reversal last week. TradeStation historical is limited but this is the 2nd 2 bar weekly volume reversal since 2019. The 2019 signal identified an important top. Bitcoin news mentions have also gone parabolic (see below). This isn’t a surprise but it’s comforting to see the data. In other words, the speculative excess isn’t anecdotal.

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Market Update: January 12

ByScandinavian Capital Markets January 13, 2021

EURUSD has indeed bounced from near 1.2125 (low is 1.2132). The 61.8% retrace of the decline is 1.2266, which reinforces 1.2270 or so as resistance. 2021 VWAP is also 1.2266 (see below)! Notice that VWAP was resistance following the NFP spike last Friday. Bottom line, I’m on alert for a lower high near 1.2270.

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Market Update: January 10

ByScandinavian Capital Markets January 11, 2021

EURUSD is breaking down and focus is on 1.1915 or so. The underside of the just broken trendline near 1.2270 is now proposed resistance. 1.2125 is a possible bounce level.

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Market Update 1/6 – More Reversal Evidence

ByScandinavian Capital Markets January 7, 2021

50-51 is big for crude. This zone was critical support in 2019. Once the level broke early last year, crude went into a swan dive. As noted 2 days ago, the rally from the April negative print does compose 5 waves. 5 waves up plus a massive market level in the form of former support (turned resistance?) indicates reversal potential.

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Market Update 1/5/2021 – Bitcoin Warning

ByScandinavian Capital Markets January 6, 2021

Bitcoin! There aren’t enough superlatives to describe the recent rise. That said, pay attention at this level. Yesterday (first trading day of the year), BTCUSD completed a 2 day volume reversal. This means that the price rallied on significant volume and declined on significant volume the very next day. BTCUSD price history on TradeStation starts in August 2011 so this ‘study’ is in no means exhaustive. Still, the only other 2 day volume reversal occurred at the June 2019. Price is also at the top of an extremely steep channel so I’m on alert for something else besides parabolic rally.