Market Update 8/17 – USD Breakout?
The USDOLLAR pullback bottomed at 11911…just above 11900. Is this a massive breakout? It is until it isn’t (then it would be a failed breakout). Risk is higher until noted otherwise with focus on 12129/60.
Market Update 8/10 – USDCAD Short Opportunity
USDCAD has responded to noted resistance (VWAP and the trendline), so focus is lower. A downside level of interest is the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the June low at 1.2313. That level intersects the trendline from late January, which was support in mid-July. In other words, the line is well-defined.
Market Update 6/15 – Copper Breakdown
Copper broke today and the first level of interest on the downside is the 23.6% retrace of the rally from March 2020 at 4.20. This level coincides with resistance from this March. Former support at 4.4440 (also the 50 day average) is now proposed resistance.
Market Update 6/10 – USDJPY about to Break Down?
109.20 is the breakdown level in USDJPY now but there is a well-defined bearish fork in place and today’s high at 109.80 is at a well-defined horizontal level. As such, I’m bearish against today’s high and looking towards 108.34 initially.
Market Update 6/7 – Huge Level in Copper
Copper is at 14+ month trendline support. A break below would indicate a significant behavior change and usher in the largest decline since the rally started in March 2020. The long term picture is below.
5/24 – After trading to an all time high 2 weeks ago, copper put in a weekly reversal candle. Price followed through on the downside last week as well. This raises the specter of a massive failure after the move above the 2011 high. A close up view is below.
Market Update 6/3 – Commodity FX Breakdown
EURUSD has broken down and near term focus is 1.1990 (see highlighted zone). Resistance should be 1.2160. Eventual downside is the lower parallel of the channel that originates at the March 202o low. That line is about 1.1850.
Market Update 5/24 – NOKJPY Idea
NOKJPY is an interesting chart. Price has rolled over from the trendline that connects the 2007 and 2013 highs. If a bigger down move is underway, then I’d expect resistance from the underside of the red trendline near 13.15. A longer term chart is below.
Market Update 4/29 – EURJPY Top?
EURJPY closed right at 132.00 today. This is HUGE. The level is defined by the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low and the trendline from the 2008 high! If you look at a 4 hour chart, you’ll see a 4 hour reversal candle. This occurred during the active U.S. session so perhaps a top is in place? The big short trigger remains a break of the upward sloping trendline but if price drops in a clear 5 waves from today’s high then I’ll plot an entry. Stay tuned.
Market Update 4/15 – Key Support for the USD
USDCHF is into support and the level is loaded. The 38.2% retrace, 50 day average, March 2020 low, and November high span ..9180-.9210. I’m looking for a turn higher. Also, the decline from the top is impulsive so a corrective rally is expected. The trigger is above .9245