AUDUSD reversed lower from the noted .7360. I am looking lower as long as price is below today’s high. .7290 is possible support. If price breaks above trendline resistance (red line), then focus would shift to .7617.
AUDUSD sports a head and shoulders bottom since 9/20. Price is trading right at the neckline now and proposed support is about .7280 (median line). The h&s objective is .7460 but be aware of .7360 for resistance. This zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace of the drop from September, the trendline from May, and 2 equal legs up from the September low.
In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
Plain and simple, USDCHF broke out today. Recent resistance is now proposed support at .9242. Near term upside focus is .9367. This is where the rally from the June low would consist of 2 equal legs. Trendline resistance from the April 2019 high and the center line of the channel that originates at the January low intersect near that price.
USDJPY is testing a key spot defined by the line off of the April and August lows and the 8/16 low. Recall the bearish setup in GBPJPY (see yesterday’s post) but I’ll note the possibility of a bounce in USDJPY from the current level given the noted level and 4 hour volume reversal in futures (see below…remember that futures are quoted JPYUSD so the chart is ‘flipped’).
The EURUSD drop did extend into 5 waves and a corrective bounce is underway towards 1.1850/56 (former 4th wave high and 61.8% retrace). Today’s rally is probably most of wave A. As such, a small pullback (1.1790 support) followed by another leg up should complete the corrective advance and give way to additional weakness.
USDJPY has been consolidating since late March. This consolidation is taking place following a break above multiyear trendline resistance. The implication is that another leg up will take place. General long term upside focus is the LONG TERM trendline (magenta line) near 117.50. Near term, price is testing short term trendline resistance (see below). A break above would warrant a long position.
AUDUSD has traded into the noted neckline and short term channel resistance (not shown) so I’m on the lookout for a pullback. RBA is tonight so be aware of a possible spike to test the line off of the May and June highs near .7480. Proposed supports now are .7380 and .7290.
AUDUSD is closing in on the well-defined .7415. Interestingly, this is the September 2020 high. It’s also support from July and resistance from August. I’ll be on the look for a turn down between .7415 and .7050 (short term channel and bigger picture neckline…see below for a zoomed in chart).