Education
December 28, 2021
AUDUSD continues to make progress within what I believe is a new bullish sequence. As such, focus is on identifying support to buy. .7170 sticks out as the ideal level. This has been an important horizontal level since the September low. The price intersects short term channel support at the end of this week (and year). Maybe we get a big buying opportunity right at the beginning of 2022! .7290 or so is still proposed resistance for a pullback.
December 16, 2021
Is the nightmare correction over for EURUSD? The ‘look’ is definitely there. For Elliott nerds, everything from the 11/30 high constitutes a complex correction labeled W-X-Y. This means that the drop is in 3 waves but the corrective legs of the structure are also corrective in nature. Upside focus is the 161.8% retrace at 1.1540, which is also the 10/29 low. Proposed support is the high volume level from today at 1.1273 and 61.8% of today’s range at 1.1252. ECB is tomorrow.
December 14, 2021
AUDUSD has pulled back following a slight push above .7170. My view is that the decline is corrective. The 61.8% retrace is in line with the 11/30 low at .7060s. That sticks out to me as the ideal spot for support.
December 10, 2021
NZDUSD has lagged AUDUSD on this bounce, which is interesting because AUDUSD reached it’s key level (.6990) but the key level for NZDUSD is slightly lower at .6700. Recall that this is the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March 2020 and the line off of lows since March. The November 2020 low has been reached at .6756 but I love the confluence at .6700. Watch for a possible non-confirmation with AUDUSD and NZDUSD. This would occur if NZDUSD drops to a new low but AUDUSD makes a higher low. This non-confirmation tends to occur at turns. .6860 remains an important overhead barrier.
December 8, 2021
All eyes should be on the month+ USDOLLAR channel line. As noted last week, a break below would serve as the trigger that the USD has finally turned.
December 2, 2021
AUDJPY is the ultimate risk barometer. As usual, it’s WAY ahead of the equity market (the equity market is always the last to know). Price has reached the median line of the fork that originates at the May high. This is a good spot for a bounce and 82.40 is well-defined for resistance. This is the 25 line, which was support on 11/10. Ultimately, a downside objective is near 74 (see below).
November 19, 2021
The TRY crisis has led to USDTRY near (or at…I’ll explain) the top of a decade + channel. The channel top when using intraday highs/lows is about 11.61. When using daily closing prices, USDTRY is at the line now. An interesting juncture and one that wouldn’t be surprising as resistance. That’s as bold as I’ll get regarding USDTRY comments right now.
November 16, 2021
DXY DAILY DXY is ticks from the median line of the structure that originates at the January low. If I were smarter then I would have […]
November 11, 2021
So much for all of that fancy Elliott mumbo jumbo. Remember the ‘5 waves down at multiple degree…blah blah blah’. USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD) ripped to its highest level since September 2020 today. Sometimes various methods work and sometimes they don’t. The methods that I employ haven’t worked well for a few months now. This will change. It always does. Anyway, USDOLLAR is still in the vicinity of longer term resistance. The zone extends to 12181, which is the December 2019 low and parallel resistance.