Market Update 5/25 – CTAs Chasing USD Shorts Again
Not surprisingly, CTAs are chasing USD shorts again. Of course, this tends to happen just before a turn (then they chase the USD higher).
Market Update 5/24 – NOKJPY Idea
NOKJPY is an interesting chart. Price has rolled over from the trendline that connects the 2007 and 2013 highs. If a bigger down move is underway, then I’d expect resistance from the underside of the red trendline near 13.15. A longer term chart is below.
Market Update 5/17 – BTCUSD and Tulips
The Dutch Tulip bubble also occurred during a pandemic. One popular narrative for tulip price behavior blames excitable Dutch merchants who had nothing better to do than sit around in taverns bidding up the price of exotic flowers (global trade was effectively in “lockdown” then)…sound familiar?
BTCUSD closed right at the noted 44000 level today. Big spot! I lean towards the downside following completion of the massive top that has been forming since February. The next downside level of interest is 32000 (or so).
Market Update 5/11 – Watch the Nikkei
The Nikkei reached the lower parallel of the Schiff fork mentioned 3 weeks ago. The level is also support from March (3/5 and 3/24 lows). Huge level! A break below would complete a topping process that has been underway since 2/16 (descending triangle). Note that this possible topping pattern has taken place at the upper parallel of the channel from the 2009 low (see monthly chart below).
Market Update 5/6 – USDOLLAR NFP Reversal Warning
A print under 11745 in USDOLLAR will complete 3 waves down from the 5/3 high and give way to another leg up…at least that’s what I’m thinking. Reminder, NFP is tomorrow!
Market Update 5/4 – NZDUSD Tags Key Level
Kiwi has traded in a textbook fashion over the last week or so. Resistance at the channel high…hard break of the center line…center line acting as resistance…and finally the lower channel line holding.
Market Update 5/3 – USDJPY Channel Still Nailing Turns
DXY turned sharply higher on Friday but gave back a good portion of those gains today. The rally counts in 5 waves (impulsive) which suggests at least one more leg up while price remains above Friday’s high. 90.79 is proposed support if price slips a bit lower.
Market Update 5/2 – Monthly TLT Buy Signal
TLT completed a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in April. This is the 3rd bullish monthly signal ever. The first 2 (blue bars) nailed lows in August 2003 and July 2007.