NZDUSD levels are actually better defined than AUDUSD in my opinion for support. Price has already reached 2 equal legs down at .6746 and the well-defined .6700 is just below. This is defended by the trendline from the lows and 2022 VWAP at .6719. Bottom line, .6700/50 is a big zone and well-defined for support. I’m looking for Kiwi to turn up and begin another leg higher within the bull cycle from the January low.
That was a blowoff top in crude oil. Interestingly, resistance came in at the same parallel that nailed the Gulf War high in 1990. I’m not going to get into detail on the near term charts just yet other than noting 97.60s for support and 115.50 for resistance. Also, USO completed a high volume 2 day reversal. This last happened in September 2019 (see below).
AUDUSD is pressing against the median line again so a drop into the lower parallel probably will not occur. At this point, I’m on alert for ‘median line acceleration’. Strength above .7314 would complete a double bottom with a .7636 target. Proposed near term support now is .7230. RBA is tonight.
Today was a classic ‘sell the news’ day with the news being Russia attacking Ukraine. A more accurate term is ‘fade the news’. SPY carved a high volume reversal. We saw one of these at the 1/24 low. Prior to that, you’ve got to go back to 2018.
You may have heard that Russia is in the news. USDRUB reversed sharply lower today after tagging daily reversal resistance (daily high close from March 2020). This level was also resistance in November 2020 (U.S. election). The reversal lower today ‘fits’ with a coming squeeze in equities and a pullback in gold. I’m wondering if the USD also breaks down. The chart below shows USDRUB and DXY since the beginning of the year. Let’s see…
If the gold breakout is going to face problems then it probably happens near 1920. This is just above the June high, short term channel resistance, and the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2020 high. It’s also the 2011 high (see below). In the meantime, 1877 and 1854 are proposed supports.
Gold has pulled back to support defined by the center line from the channel that originates at the September low. A dip under today’s low to test 1842 isn’t out of the question. The top side of former trendline resistance needs to hold as support in order to maintain a bullish stance and look towards 1920.
Gold has broken out and the next level to focus on is 1920. This is near the June high and possible channel resistance from the channel that originates at the September low. It’s also the 2011 high. If price pulls back then support should be 1842/47. The top of this zone is the center line of the noted channel. The bottom of the zone is the top side of former trendline resistance.
USDOLLAR held the trendline that originates at the September low today. A break of this line is what I’m waiting for to signal ‘all clear’ on the downside for the USD.