Education
March 24, 2022
Everything since the January low in BTCUSD appears to be a triangle. Triangles typically break in the direction of the prior move…in this case that would be lower. Under Elliott, triangles consist of 5 waves labeled A-B-C-D-E. BTCUSD clearly sports 5 waves since the January low. The implication is that price rolls over soon and eventually breaks beneath the January low.
March 23, 2022
GBPUSD has already followed through on last week’s reversal. This is somewhat frustrating because we didn’t get a chance to buy proposed 1.3080/90 support. In any case, support now should be 1.3194-1.3210. The big test on the upside (near term at least) is 1.3360. This is the January low and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.
March 21, 2022
The Dow has reached and responded to the noted level for resistance. The rally from 2/24 also channels in a corrective manner (see hourly chart below). I’m ‘thinking’ lower from this level with possible support near the center line of the corrective channel (about 33860).
March 2, 2022
AUDUSD broke above the median line today so longs are in play. The top side of the median line is proposed support now (formerly resistance) near .7265. This is also the year and month opening prices. One benefit to trading with median lines are tight stops. That’s especially useful in this instance given the proximity of the January high and 200 day average as possible resistance. Upside focus is .7370 followed by .7420s.
February 16, 2022
AUDUSD is pressing against the trendline from the October high. The center line of the short term bullish fork is also in the vicinity. A break above the trendline opens up the January high at .7314 and possibly the confluence of the upper parallel from the bullish fork and trendline from February 2021 near .7440.
February 15, 2022
Gold has broken out and the next level to focus on is 1920. This is near the June high and possible channel resistance from the channel that originates at the September low. It’s also the 2011 high. If price pulls back then support should be 1842/47. The top of this zone is the center line of the noted channel. The bottom of the zone is the top side of former trendline resistance.
February 9, 2022
EURUSD continues to meander sideways following last week’s rip but that should change with U.S. inflation data tomorrow. I’m wondering if the ‘ideal’ support is 1.1345. This is the top side of the trendline from May and trendline from the May low. It’s also the 38.2% retrace of the rally. A drop to there could complete 3 waves down from last week’s high.
February 9, 2022
I’ve been focusing on near term gold levels recently, which have played out well. 1815 was support today for example. However, don’t forget the big picture! Gold has been ‘coiling’ for over a year and is just under the trendline that originates at the January 2021 high. A break above this line would suggest at least a test of the 2020 high. Finally, notice the perfect channel re-test (channel from 2015 low).
February 7, 2022
UUP (USD ETF) completed a weekly volume reversal last week! Most signals since inception of the ETF have been identified important turns in the ETF and therefore the USD in general.