EURUSD low today was 1.1263. How about that trendline! I can’t think of a better technical combination, a Fibonacci level and long term well-defined trendline, to mark an important turning point. I am bullish against the low. The first hurdle on the upside is the weekly opening price at 1.1446 followed by former support at 1.1525. Support should be 1.1290-1.1300.
BTCUSD has followed through on its 11/10 reversal. I love this setup. Price has broken the median line, which is now proposed resistance along with the 11/12 low at 62295. Initial downside focus is channel support (blue line) in the 52000s. A longer term view is below.
The cleanest setup from my vantage point at the moment is in gold. Price has broken out (remember 1834 was possible resistance…it didn’t do anything so it’s support) and 1834 is proposed support. Former resistance is reinforced by the top side of the line off of the 2020 and May highs along with the center line of the short term bullish channel (which was formerly resistance). Upside focus is the May high at 1916.
Gold is closing in on the noted level from the line that extends off of the 2020 and May highs and resistance since July near 1834. I’m ‘thinking’ pullback initially from the well-defined level but will be tracking for support beginning near 1800 since I’m of the mind that the broader trend is higher.
Crude traded up to 84 (a bit above) and has gone straight down since. 82.20 is now proposed resistance if crude bounces. Downside focus is the July high at 76.98 and possibly the top side of the LONG TERM former resistance line (now support) near 73. The weekly chart below shows the this long term chart in its entirety.
Clarity is lacking ahead of FOMC as it pertains to general USD direction. The ‘break’ lower in the USD last week proved false but one can make the case that action since September high is 5 waves down and 3 waves up. The rally has retraced 61.8% of the decline too so it’s possible that price resumes lower now. Confidence in direction is extremely low right now. Hopefully, this clears up post-FOMC.
Remember the channel from the January high? EURUSD has confirmed a false break below the channel…which is bullish (low of the last 3 days is right at the channel line). Near term, I’m thinking 1.0700/30 puts up a fight. If it does, then watch for support near 1.0640. The next 3 charts show instances when EURUSD made a 5 day low and 20 day high on the same day. Today is just the 4th time that has happened since the euro’s inception. In the previous 3 instances, the ‘show of strength’ day (Wyckoff term) preceded large advances although not necessarily right away.
BTCUSD is off 13% since the top last week. If price drops under the short term lower channel line near 56830 then weakness will be considered impulsive and ‘waterfall’ weakness would be on the table. Watch for resistance near 61850. The weekly chart is shown below. This looks ‘toppy’ to me. Yes, ‘toppy’ is an official technical term. Former trendline support has provided resistance on the way up, a doji candle formed last week, and the rally failed after taking out the prior high. Seems bearish. Finally, is BTCUSD trying to tell equities something (see 2 charts down)
Gold broke above trendline resistance and the 200 day average today. The top side of the trendline (blue) is now proposed support near 1790. Upside focus is the line off of the August 2020 and June high. That’s about 1840.