Tag: DXY

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: October 1 – Important Monthly USD Signal

It’s a new month which means we monthly volume signals, which are obviously rare. DX futures made a 2 bar monthly volume reversal. This means that August was a high volume up month and at least a 12 month closing high and September was a high volume down month (go here for more on volume indicators).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: September 28

Silver broke the trendline from the March low last week and is bouncing from short term oversold conditions. It would be quite a bounce but the underside of the noted trendline intersects the well-defined 26.10/28 zone late this week.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – September 18

USDOLLAR failed yet again at the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. Pay attention to 11940, which is 2 legs down from the 9/10 high and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the 9/1 low, for support. This is also near the 8/19 low and top side of the line that crosses highs in August (magenta line).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – September 10

USDOLLAR has yet to break above 12087 and the rally has failed so far a the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. I’m still leaning towards action since 7/31 as a base that price will work higher from. Watch for support now near 11973.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – September 2

DXY traded 91.75 today before turning (exact midpoint between 91.50 and 92.00 by the way) higher. A daily volume reversal triggered in the process! We now have 2 triggers since 7/31, which is similar to the 2 triggers in January 2018 and summer 2018. Additional signals occurred in May 2016 and May 2014 (these are all circled on the chart below). Strength above 93.04 (high volume level from Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Thursday) would break a 1 month wedge and suggest that the trend has reversed (hourly chart is below too).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – September 1

In financial futures, dealers are considered the ‘smart money’. They tend to be bearish at the top and bullish at the bottom. So, it usually pays to pay attention when their position becomes extreme. Well, the dealer short position in Euro is basically off of the bottom of the screen. In fact, the dealer short position in early 2018 (last big EURUSD high) pales in comparison to the current position. Price wise, pay attention to the levels noted yesterday.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – August 31

Is DXY still ‘trying’ to bottom? If so, then it needs to turn up around 92, which is the line off of the 2011 and 2014 lows (arithmetic scale). 91.50-92.00 has also been a major pivot since 1998. I sound like the boy who cried wolf but I’m on alert for a turn higher.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – August 20

USDOLLAR dipped under the 8/2 low today and reversed sharply. Today was a bullish outside day, just like 8/2 (close up chart below). I view today as a re-test / fake-out and still favor upside with the previously mentioned 12350 or so as ‘swing’ upside to target. Near term, the March low at 12129 is a possible reaction level.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

GBP/USD Reaches 8-Month Highs Amid Dollar Weakness, Brexit Deal Hopes

GBP/USD inched higher in early trading on Wednesday, reaching its highest levels since December 31st. The recent surge has been largely attributed to a soft US dollar and rising expectations that a Brexit trade deal will be reached by October.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update – August 17

Silver made a 2 bar weekly volume reversal last week. Volume reversal logic is explained here. The only other signals with the same volume requirements occurred in December 2010 and April 2011.