Market Update: October 14
SPX CURRENT WITH SPX 1987 – 3 MONTH DAILY QUERY
The top 3 month EidoSearch is the 3 months leading up to the 1987 crash. Here is some information on EidoSearch if you are not familiar. This is not a prediction, simply an observation. Getting back to reality, 3428/55 is an important short term zone. The top of this zone is channel support (see hourly chart below). Weakness below would warrant a bearish position…then see what happens. As a reminder, I’ve reproduced the long term SPX charts with the ‘meridian line’ 2 and 3 charts down.
SPX CASH HOURLY
SPX CASH WEEKLY
SPX CASH MONTHLY
DXY CURRENT WITH DXY 1980-3 MONTHS BEFORE ELECTION AND 1 MONTH AFTER
In the 3 months leading up to a U.S. presidential election, 1980 is most similar to the current period for DXY. Is Trump analogous to Carter? Is Biden analogous to Reagan? Is Carter’s mishandling of the Iranian hostage crisis analogous to Trump and Covid? Pure conjecture and not all that useful in my opinion but the 2 time series ARE similar. If the relationship continues, then the USD is about accelerate higher. A break above 94 in DXY (see 4 hour chart below) would serve as the bullish trigger. Remember that DXY remains above a major long term level as well (see weekly chart 2 chart down).
DXY 4 HOUR
DXY WEEKLY
NZDUSD 4 HOUR
NZDUSD didn’t quite make to to .6690 (high was .6682) but a 4 hour volume reversal triggered today so I’m willing to trade from the short side. 4 hour volume reversals (see futures chart below) have identified some big trades over the last few years.
10/12 – The surge above .6660 in NZDUSD was not expected but key on .6690 now for a top. This is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 9/18 and 2 equal legs up from the 9/24 low. The top of the short term corrective channel intersects this level over the next few days. .6690 has also been an important pivot since late July.
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR FUTURES 4 HOUR
NZDJPY 4 HOUR
NZDJPY resistance continues to register from the upper parallel of a bearish fork. Weakness below 69.80 is the bearish trigger for weakness into 68.15/40 and possibly 66.00ish.
