Copper begins the week at the lower parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March low…an important spot. If it breaks, then downside focus is 2.6325. Recall that copper put in a high 3 weeks ago at a major level (see weekly chart below).
USDOLLAR daily RSI is 16.53. It’s only been that low twice (date since 2011); at the April 2011 low and the January 2018 low. Levels wise, the median line of the fork from the 2017 high is about 11950 (see close up below), which is in line with the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the March high. It’s a logical place for a reversal.
This is an analog that we’ve been following for several years. The mirror image of DXY price action from the February 1991 low closely matches price action from the March 2015 high. Figure out ‘why’ if you want but it continues to ‘work’ and I’m intrigued because the analog suggests consolidation through year end before the USD takes a digger in 2021. A close-up view is below.
Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
Today was the first day since the rally off of the March low that QQQ made a lower pivot high with 5 day strength. That means that there are 5 days on each side of the high.
So much for ‘extreme sentiment’ towards the USD. DXY dropped for a 7th straight day today. Price is now testing the trendline from the 2011 low. The lower parallel from the channel off of the March high is slightly lower…about 93.15 (see below). At this point, I’m not sure where the next level of interest is if DXY fails to hold.
Seasonal tendencies are now bullish-sideways for DXY (and bearish-sideways for EURUSD) through mid-August. The biggest shift in seasonal tendencies however is in the commodity currency complex. AUDUSD and NZDUSD enter their most bearish period of the year starting now. USDCAD is in its most bullish period of the year. Nasdaq seasonal tendencies are bearish through August 14th. These charts are shown below.
Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
The greenback rebounded on Thursday, amid fears that a resurgence in the coronavirus could slow a global economic recovery. Meanwhile, US/China tensions remain elevated, with murmurs that a new Cold War is emerging between the superpowers.