Market Update – July 23
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS GETTING PUNCHED IN THE MOUTH, AND ITS OUTLOOK AMID CORONAVIRUS DOESN’T LOOK GREAT, SOME EXPERTS SAY
THE U.S. DOLLAR IS GETTING PUNCHED IN THE MOUTH, AND ITS OUTLOOK AMID CORONAVIRUS DOESN’T LOOK GREAT, SOME EXPERTS SAY
EURUSD traded 1.1452 today before reversing and closing near the low of the day. The high is right on the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. The line off of the September 2018 and March highs also reinforces the area as resistance. I’m of the mind that today was a high and now wish to trade from the short side. ECB is tomorrow. I’ll wait until that’s out of the way before determining entry.
Copper nearly took out the 2019 high today before reversing lower. The reversal also occurred after price spiked above the trendline from 2011. High today is also on the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. The reaction from massive overhead resistance strongly suggests that a high of importance is in place. Pay attention to the parallels within the channel from the March low (see below). The center line is near 2.84 and the lower parallel is near 2.71.
Risk’ may have put in an important high today. The following charts ‘explain’ why.
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USDOLLAR focus remains towards 12428. In fact, 2 equal legs up from the low would be 12418. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork and short term bullish channel intersect 12418/28 on Thursday/Friday. The level is also marked by the 4/30 low.
TLT reached the noted support line on Friday and reversed higher. The importance of this line cannot be overstated. This is the same line that was resistance for major tops since 2012. Another leg higher from here is possible but I don’t have a strong opinion on whether or not that happens. Favor the upside as long as Friday’s low holds. 162 is initial resistance.
GBPUSD erased most of yesterday’s rally but I remain constructive. In fact, price found support near the short term trendline that originates at the 5/18 low. I want to see strength above 1.2300 (blue line) before committing capital to the upside again though. In general, this level has been support and resistance for a little over a month.
It ‘feels’ like the USD is on the verge of breaking down. That said, USDOLLAR is back into important support (line off of 2011 and 2014 lows and a major horizontal level…see weekly chart below). Support is support until broken so respect bounce potential with resistance near 12520.