Market Update – July 14

COPPER DAILY

Copper nearly took out the 2019 high today before reversing lower.  The reversal also occurred after price spiked above the trendline from 2011.  High today is also on the upper parallel of the channel from the March low.  The reaction from massive overhead resistance strongly suggests that a high of importance is in place.  Pay attention to the parallels within the channel from the March low (see below).  The center line is near 2.84 and the lower parallel is near 2.71.

COPPER 4 HOUR

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

Today may have been the ‘kickoff’ needed to get Aussie rolling down hill.  A high volume level at .6962 is proposed resistance now.  Price could bounce near .6900 but downside focus is the 6/15 low at .6779 followed by the major horizontal level at .6680.  Seasonal tendencies also turn down after this week.

7/9 – AUDUSD traded back into and reversed from daily reversal resistance but the fact that price rolled over before reaching the 25 line indicates a weakening uptrend and warns of a break (similar logic to prolonged RSI divergence).  When a parallel has provided support/resistance for an extended period of time and price fails to reach that parallel before reversing, it’s called a ‘space’.  The original term was a gap but traders know gaps as something completely different.  Below .6920 is the short signal.

AUDUSD DAILY

AUDUSD WEEKLY SEASONALITY

NZDUSD 4 HOUR

NZDUSD is trying to follow through on its volume reversal from last week.  Price could bounce near .6520 (7/7 low and 25 line of channel from the March low) but initial downside focus is the lower parallel near .6405.  Seasonal tendencies also turn down after this week.  A high volume level at .6564 is proposed resistance.

7/9 – NZDUSD took out the June high before reversing lower today.  Now there is a non-confirmation between NZDUSD (new high) and AUDUSD (not a new high), which often occurs at important pivots in both pairs.  There was also an 8 hour volume reversal on the futures chart (see below), which also favors the idea of a top.  Finally, the rally from the March low consist of 5 waves.  Waves 3-5 equal wave 1, which isn’t uncommon with V-bottoms (large 1st waves).

NZDUSD WEEKLY SEASONALITY