NASDAQ FUTURES DAILY

Market Update 4/25 – Fed Capitulates on Bonds

The Nasdaq is holding on for dear life. Price continues to trade around the well-defined trendline that crosses highs over the last 8 years (see zoomed out chart below). Bigger picture, one must acknowledge that trend is sideways at best and possibly down with price below the 200 day average and that average shifting from a flat to a negative slope. Near term, today’s reversal sets up for a squeeze higher with resistance in the 14300-14500 range. A relief rally is needed in order to relieve extremely negative sentiment.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE (DJI) DAILY

Market Update 4/21 – Longer Term Dow Trend Change?

The Dow traded to its best level since 2/10 today before plummeting all day and forming a massive bearish outside day in the process. Scroll out and you’ll see that price has been pressing against a flat 200 day average as well. I’m wondering if this is a larger trend change. It’s safe to say that the broader trend has shifted from up to sideways. If price breaks the long term center line then the trend will be considered down with focus on 29800 or so. The full picture from the 2009 low is below.

USDJPY DAILY

Market Update 4/20 – Bonds and USD Reverse

USDJPY didn’t quite make 130 but notice the channel from the 2021 low. 1/2 and full channel extensions are plotted with the channel. The March high was at the 1/2 channel extension. Today’s high was at the full channel extension. Near term focus is on the 1/2 channel extension near 125.30, which was formerly resistance. Near term, watch for resistance near 128.50 (see below). Finally, a volume reversal (on futures) triggered today. This is only the 3rd such reversal since 2014. Those charts are below.

NASDAQ FUTURES (NQ) DAILY

Market Update 4/18 – Nasdaq Reverses Higher from Support

NQ reversed higher from the proposed support zone today. Sentiment is stretched down here too as evidenced by the AA II bull bear spread (see below). Sentiment is stretched just about everywhere actually…bonds…the USD…and equities. So, perhaps the reversal down here in stocks is joined by a reversal higher in bonds and lower in the USD over the next few days…just a thought. Anyway, I’m looking higher in NQ. It’s possible that everything since 2/24 is a massive base but near term focus is on 2022 VWAP near 14500 for now.

Market Update 4/14 – Stalking for a Rates Reversal

Market Update 4/14 – Stalking for a Rates Reversal

It’s clear that the USD won’t roll over until/unless rates stop going up. TLT is the long bond ETF, which moves inversely to rates. So, a turn higher in TLT means a turn lower in rates. This could happen soon because TLT is closing in on a massive level defined by 2 legs down from the August 2020 high (using this high rather than the COVID spike high…the August high is the daily and weekly closing high) at 119.94. It’s also the 25 line within the channel from the 2007 low. This line nailed the 2013 and 2018 lows. Finally, the decline channels. If we do get a reversal then there should be a USDJPY play.

DXY DAILY

Market Update 4/12 – DXY 9 Days Up!

DXY has reached the bottom of the zone cited last week for possible resistance. The line off of the November 2021 and March highs is right up here along with the well-defined horizontal that goes back to 2015. Within the sequence from the January low, wave 5 would equal wave 1 slightly higher at 100.59. Also, DXY is now up 9 days in a row (see below). The last time that happened was at the March 2020 high!

USDCAD 4 HOUR

Market Update 4/11 – USDCAD Trade Setup

USDCAD has reached the level noted for resistance. This level is huge. It’s defined by VWAP from the March high, 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, underside of the trendline from the 2021 low, and year open! My ‘guess’ is that price rolls over but I need a response, such as a price and/or volume reversal, in order to short. Stay tuned.