USDJPY continues to rip higher but price has reached an interesting level. The level in question is the line that extends off of the 2018 and 2020 highs. Seasonal tendencies also top this week. This trendline/seasonal combination makes for a great opportunity to fade the move but we need price to suggest that some sort of a top is in place. An intraday volume reversal for example would suffice.
GBPUSD spiked up to 1.3840s today before pulling back. Interestingly, 1.3840 was the level I was looking for resistance last week because that was last week’s open. Better defined resistance is 1.3880 but the rally from the low is in 3 waves and the drop from today’s high is impulsive. I like shorts into 1.3812. Given the failed break above long term trendline resistance last month, downside may be significant. Another reason to favor downside against today’s high is the fact that the rally failed near VWAP from February FOMC.
I love this AUDJPY short setup. Price has broken below the trendline from the November low. The underside of that line is now proposed resistance at 83.65/90. The 2/26 low is a bounce level at 81.98. Downside is the lower parallel from the bearish fork, which is significant (probably a 78 handle).
The break above the median line in USDOLLAR is significant! The top side of this line should provide support now near 11810. The September low at 11867 is possible resistance for a pullback/pause but general focus is on the parallel that was resistance in Q4 2020 (then reassess). That line is about 12030. The long term view is shown below for context.
USDTRY swings remains TEXTBOOK. The massive gap higher after the weekend is wave C of the noted A-B-C advance from the February low. In fact, the high is at the 78.6% retrace of the decline from the November high. Recall that when the leading diagonal was first identified after the February low, I noted that corrections after leading diagonals tend to retrace 78.6% of the diagonal. Voila! I am bearish again and resistance is 7.9990-8.0595. Don’t forget that USDTRY remains below long term resistance
DXY focus is lower in a C wave towards 90.76/89. This zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the February low and where the decline from the March high would consist of 2 equal legs. 2021 VWAP and VWAP from the January low reinforce the level as potential support (see futures chart below).
BTCUSD has dropped in 5 waves from the high made over the weekend. The implication is that this rally ends with a lower high before at least one more leg lower. The 2 levels to keep in mind for resistance are the former 4th wave high at 57,341 and the 61.8% retrace at 58,511.
EURUSD may be working on a 3 wave rally from the 3/9 low. Proposed support for wave B is just under 1.1900…1.1887/99 is daily reversal support, the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the low, and 2 equal legs down from the 3/11 high. If this interpretation is correct, then price will rally into 1.2050/90 (month open is 1.2070 as well).
The 4th wave idea described yesterday looked promising for a few hours…then EURUSD blasted through 1.1950. Current pattern is unclear from my vantage point but the next upside level of interest looks like 1.2050/75. This is the 25 line of the bearish fork from the January high and the underside of the center line from the channel that originates at the March 2020 low. 1.1950 is now proposed support.